• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...

Give us another run or two like we just had and they'll be singing a very different tune
 
Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...
That’s exactly my point as well. As much as I have admittedly railed on many of these pros over years...,fact is, they’re pros for a reason and make a living as such. More times than not they are on the right side of verification irregardless of the outcomes. May as well enjoy observing g how they operate between now and 14th. Probably learn a lot that we could use to interpret their handling of future scenarios.
 
Snowbird Bob said its not being accurate and he is sticking to his forecast so we will see i guess
 
And this is why we shouldn't be panicking over one model suite. Like I said, if it looks like this tomorrow or Sunday, I will give up. There's still some time for this to trend back to yesterday but if things continue to get worse for the next day or two, I will feel less confident about next weekend.
Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...
 
GaSnowhound said:
That’s exactly my point as well. As much as I have admittedly railed on many of these pros over years...,fact is, they’re pros for a reason and make a living as such. More times than not they are on the right side of verification irregardless of the outcomes. May as well enjoy observing g how they operate between now and 14th. Probably learn a lot that we could use to interpret their handling of future scenarios.
Click to expand...
I do remember Brad P before the January 2016 storm being fairly steadfast that it would be a potentially high impact event for the Piedmont and upstate even as in the 3-5 day period most modeling had it as a cutter. He followed what he was pointing out was the pattern at the time. Well he ended pretty dead on with that one as it trends SE and if anything it was more widespread than even he thought as it was colder than forecast and the wintry precipitation got further south and east
 
Remember guys, this is still a week out and there will be multiple big changes between now and then. This far out, a possibility is all we can reasonably hope for. There was no reason to lock on to the 20 inch big dogs yesterday, as history tells us that was completely unrealistic. Plus, who really wants to be in the bullseye 7-8 days out, right? By the same token, today's runs aren't going to be the final solution, and may not be anywhere even close. We likely won't have much idea on this one until Wed or so. Climo says it will likely be a cold rain for most, and a mixed event for some.
 
Late next weekend could still provide if we can do this right
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Regarding the Euro, it is just one run and the crucial period is still 7-8 days out. Models, especially operationals typically swing a good bit from run to run. So, no telling this far out if the 12Z Euro is going to be closer to reality. Just as the positive reactions are often overdone, so are the negative ones. Regardless, it is only wx, not life and death.
 
A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with the potential for one or two waves of low pressure to develop along this front and track northeast. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. Based on analog tools and the preferred ECMWF ensemble mean which depicts at least a 20 percent chance of 3-day precipitation amounts exceeding 0.5 inch (liquid equivalent), a slight risk of heavy snow is posted from the Southern Appalachians northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and New England, Feb 13 to 16. This snow hazard is consistent with a negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. and subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic. Due to the predicted shallow Arctic Air becoming established by week-2, there would also be an increased risk for an ice storm if any precipitation spreads northward into the southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Tennessee Valley. Freezing rain could also affect the Mid-Atlantic, depending on the depth of the Arctic Air.
1612556295149.png
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top