These models are assjuice, I’m done looking at this timeframe, the bouncing is just insane 
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Not worried about it yet but if Euro shows this in 24 hours, then I’ll be worried.
Absolutely... it’s kinda of hard to say that there is any sort of trend with these op models, because they going all over the place with different solutions. Personally I think that the warm temps the Euro was putting in the south there ton Thursday might have the same chance of verification as some of the crazy clown maps we’ve seen the last few days. The only thing that I’ve seen this morning that you could say would be a real trend is the idea of a strong CAD for the Carolinas and N GA. The other things we’re seeing match up with model biases at this range the last several months.
I actually like this look better. Increase our chances significantly of getting severe weather. If we can't get snow or even sleet storm, may as well shift the Polar Vertex west enough to the point where we are warm enough to not have to deal with yet another cold rain event.
So we were saying the EMCF was the consistent model? It's as bad as all the rest past 5 days. They are all, all over the place.
I’m ready to chase some supercells
Yes, but they all agree on the TPV getting stuck in the west. I would pack it up unless we see a trend back.
Is this happening because tropical forcing is unfavorable?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The temperature spread in Texas. Damn.
Didn't that accuweather guy say this would happen and people called him a clown ?
Not sure...who? I was sucked into what the models were showing...should have known better. But, hey, maybe we can finally dry out some and get some nice weather.
This ------------- TPV is making us looks like fools, FOOLS I SAY, we’ve been salivating over it for a week, I’ve been salivating over it for a week, only for it to get pushed back, at this point I wonder if the pacific will even boot it, hello whamby thread
And oh to add on, the -NAO is getting destroyed by donuts ?
And oh to add on, the -NAO is getting destroyed by donuts ?
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Honestly looks like models could be trending towards climatology. History says it's usually the midwest and southern plain states that gets the snow and ice from this type of setup.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Finally a good pattern shows up...
It's still at day 10
It's still at day 10
MichaelJ
Member
The enormous swings from run to run on the models is frustrating and agonizing. The one trend they all pretty much show is the TPV retrograding west and that means doom for SE snow. If this consolidates among the models tomorrow, we can hang it up and that may go for the extreme cold too
Cold can’t move East no more. And if it does, it’s marginal. I’m almost sold we can’t get a legit cold TPV in the east no more
Chill chill one runs cycle guys come on .. this thing is on a tight rope any small trip up could cause significant shift in outcomes ... I wanna see the ensembles
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's sad esp considering we have a giant west-based -NAO to boot, that usually suppresses the SE ridge, but we still manage to screw it up.