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Pattern February Discussion

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Well, the GEFS has spoken for the second wave. Warm. Need a lot of changes to squeak something out for most on the board. Sad that Wave #1 is looking more promising my way now.
 
Storm5 said:
huh? the euro has the second wave at day 8 . it's horrible
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There I circled in red of what I was talking about. That is the beginnings of the second system if it holds together. The timing is better IMO on the Euro. We had that discussion yesterday about the timing.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
There I circled in red of what I was talking about. That is the beginnings of the second system if it holds together. The timing is better IMO on the Euro. We had that discussion yesterday about the timing.

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thats not the second wave. the euro has the second wave I posted it above . anything post day 10 on the euro would be a third wave

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Now I'm looking at the GEFS on the maps I can, it's entirely different from the GFS and I'm guessing that its a much, much warmer look too (and the GFS was already too warm). I'm guessing it's probably 60s-70s during this time period on the GFS.

So it's not 60s-70s, but its basically as warm as the 6z GFS is.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now I'm looking at the GEFS on the maps I can, it's entirely different from the GFS and I'm guessing that its a much, much warmer look too (and the GFS was already too warm). I'm guessing it's probably 60s-70s during this time period on the GFS.

So it's not 60s-70s, but its basically as warm as the 6z GFS is.
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When the Canadian is warm this time of the year, it's time to take notice. Not that the Canadian is absolutely horrible or anything, but it does tend to be way cold in the longer range. It's ice storm happy if that makes sense.
 
Storm5 said:
that not the second wave. the euro ha the second wave I posted it above . anything post day 10 on the euro would be a third wave

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There could be some precip overrunning before the actual low gets kicked out with that first system. I think that's what's confusing people, thinking that when low gets kicked out is the second wave. If you compare the 12z GFS at hr 174 and the 0z Euro deterministic, you can see the difference and see what I'm talking about. The Euro is slower with that second system.

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Details don't concern me too much, but what concerns me is one of the options in the overall pattern will effectively wrap up winter unless you're in the mountains. If the PV splits and a piece moves over Alaska it's going to end winter. With us being near this time period, we're going to see model runs that show what will happen if this happens.
 
12z CMC agrees with the slower timing of that second system. It shows the beginning of the second system dropping down into the Plains by hr 204-210 roughly. Take note that the resolution of the CMC is terrible in the long range.

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yeah yeah...screw details, but the issue with the CMC for me is it's in a completely different direction from the GFS after the Super Bowl and worrisomely enough it's a direction that's possible.

I hope I'm wrong but the second batch is in all likelihood going to be nothing without several changes coming soon.
 
That system moving from west to east on the CMC from 162 to 204 is good. That allows colder air to come in and allows for a HP to move in across the Dakotas/upper mid west. This is what we want to see. That second system should slip underneath that HP just like the 0z Euro deterministic is showing. Also, the EPS dose have that system moving from west to east as well. The GFS doesn't have that system moving from west to east.

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Holding my breath for the EURO (no access for me right now)...I've looked at so many maps today that I've forgotten what the Euro looked like at 0z for the first wave???...I hate getting old...
 
The GFS late in the run shows a -NAO and massive Greenland block, but because of the Alaska vort it's merely....cool instead of cold.
 
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