ForsythSnow
Moderator
I would think we are in that time frame where it goes south. We have only had 4 consistent runs in a row where the storm appears in the Gulf, so it would be time to watch trends.
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Pattern February Discussion
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packfan98
Moderator
I tend to agree with you. Plus, it's much more likely that the storm misses a phase than becomes very wrapped up.
We don't want to see it that way with it being that far out cause it usually tends to come farther and farther north and warmer. I like on where the GFS is placing the low and track. I'm not even worried about the temps right now. Just focusing on consistency of the storm signal and putting my thoughts on probable outcome. Models aren't going to be perfect and that's why we have to put human input (our thoughts) in them as well and not just let the model do all the work itself.
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I don't disagree and the cold GFS bias is consistent with trending north. So, I, too. wouldn't bet against that. However, there are always exceptions and that time of year has had well above average winter storm activity for CAE, ATL, and others.
if your wanting good news from the 12z eps , you won't find it
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packfan98
Moderator
accu35
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Me throwing winter in the bushes
2m temps on the eps during the period we are interested in are on fire
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the 12z eps is a disaster . anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you . 2m temps are on fire with a BRIEF 48 hour cool down day 8
day 12
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day 12
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Not saying that it can't happen, but I seriously doubt that it will verify. The Euro still has trouble with low-level cold air damming. The thing that concerns me most is that the Canadian, which is usually better in seeing potential CAD, is warm as well. Waiting on the models to trend toward a colder solution is not a good place to be. In my opinion, the first storm has the best chance for winter weather. As it has been stated over and over again.... we need some blocking if we want a board-wide event.
I just looked over the 12z Euro OP. It's about the same as it's 0z run, except the timing of that 2nd system. If you look at the vorticity, that energy over NM/TX is the 2nd system. You can see it being dragged in by the first system over the Pacific NW. The timing projection is more accurate on the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS showing the 2nd system coming in later on than what it has been showing. 10th-13th is the time as I been mentioning. Then again, it may come in early as the 8th or 9th just depends on how fast the first system comes in.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm trying not to be overly negative or bittercast but even with the idea of yeah yeah its too early to look at details idea, I don't think we want to see a bunch of models showing an idea with a future pattern that is really bad for most of the US winter weather wise period. And its one that's very possible and IF it were to occur, its over winter wise.
ATLwxfan
Member
the 12z eps is a disaster . anyone that tells you otherwise is lying to you . 2m temps are on fire with a BRIEF 48 hour cool down day 8
day 12
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Winter cancel?
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time to start worrying about temps . all ops and ensembles are not even close . they are all too warm . the gefs and eps are disasters temp wise . to hell with the low , time to figure out where the cold source is cause right now there isn't one
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Stormlover
Member
from Robert at WxSouth
But by Thursday night a new front sort of oozes down through the Ohio Valley and brings colder air back south toward the mid South region of Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, but again, nothing too cold.
Its at this point, the models all have different ideas going forward. The flow is "split" ,meaning part of the westerlies go up and over the Alaskan ridge. Another part of the jet comes directly ashore the West Coast. From then on, its a parade of waves in the streams and it could get interesting somewhere in the TN Valley, Apps or along the East Coast and MidAtlantic in early February. Timing on anything is hard to get a handle.
But by Thursday night a new front sort of oozes down through the Ohio Valley and brings colder air back south toward the mid South region of Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, but again, nothing too cold.
Its at this point, the models all have different ideas going forward. The flow is "split" ,meaning part of the westerlies go up and over the Alaskan ridge. Another part of the jet comes directly ashore the West Coast. From then on, its a parade of waves in the streams and it could get interesting somewhere in the TN Valley, Apps or along the East Coast and MidAtlantic in early February. Timing on anything is hard to get a handle.
ATLwxfan
Member
It's best to not focus on the temps. You really don't wanna know.
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RollTide18
Member
Yeah it's be multiple runs in a row of bad temps and at this point I don't see that changing, there's just nothing to push the cold air southward.
The reason why I'm not worring/focusing on the temps is because that second system is beyond hr 192. Yes, the system shows up before hr 192 on the GFS but as the system pushes east it is beyond hr 192. The GFS loses resolution beyond hr. 192! Temps will change every run.
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whatalife
Moderator
The weeklies will save us! 
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