Pattern February Discussion

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Track of 12Z was better (more SE) than that of 0z/6Z and similar to 18Z. The best hope for many is a track further SE by ~100 miles.
 
DaculaWeather said:
Mostly sleet and freezing rain...





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Yeah, that's wave 1 that does okay in areas of the mountains.

Here is Wave #2 surface:
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Again I love this look climo wise for those in North Alabama/North Georgia/Upstate SC and further north, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, temps. It took a step in the right direction though I feel.
 
Yes, this is an improvement on the 12z GFS. I think there will be a good winter event with that second wave.

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Need to start checking the ensemble members for temps now. The system is on it's 4th run of the GFS in a row after being off and on for a bit. If the majority of members aren't supportive of temps even close, we have a problem.
 
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The track and look is perfect for a deep south Winter Storm but temps...But at this point this as good a look as you can ask for

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png


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Temps in the Low 40s for Central Alabama and upper 30s for North Alabama. Cold chasing moisture will not cut it though unfortunately.
 
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
post images
 
Shawn said:
That track would nail us with ZR/Sleet in theory. Not sure we want the low crossing over FL that far North. BUT without much cold around, doesn't really matter.
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I think it could very well be cold enough with a track further SE as I think there'd be more cold air.
 
DaculaWeather said:
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
post images
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Truth. The last true snow storm we had here in CAE, the cold was entrenched well before the low rolled through. Then, the latest sleet/zr event in 2014 (big one), again, the high was anchored down well in place... with snowpack to the North.
 
DaculaWeather said:
After this last fiasco for some of us here in Georgia, unless I have some decent cold air in place, I am not getting excited about winter weather in our neck of the woods. The way I look at it, if I have to wait on the cold air to arrive, I have a very low confidence forecast. The lack of cold air this year has been a killer for us. Anomalies like this won't work for us.
post images
Click to expand...
And yet somehow we managed to get 2-3" of snow in early January !
 
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