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Pattern February Discussion

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Rain Cold said:
Dang, Webber just nailing the coffin shut. Props on the forecast so far, tho.

Do you think we have any shot at any decent winters in the next 5 years or so? There is this whole solar min thing that's getting some hype, but that may be well overrated.
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SoutheastRidge said:
Webber, what are your thoughts on temps for the spring ( march-may) ? Atlanta has had 12 straight months of AN temps. Is there any end in sight or will this warmth last forever ?
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Thanks for the feedback! I think wrt solar minimum, if we are able to observe another easterly QBO/weak-moderate CP NINO combo in concert w/ this solar background, then it's feasible we could see at least 1 or 2 winters with exceptional high latitude blocking over the next several years, in fact this is the most conducive ENSO/QBO/Solar configuration for blocking. In a nutshell the general physical reasoning for this has to do w/ low solar activity allowing for accumulation of ozone in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino enhancing transport (& destruction) into the mid-high latitudes, and easterly QBO focusing RW activity in the winter hemisphere and onto the polar vortex. Granted, the recent slowing of the north Atlantic branch of the thermohaline circulation (via melting from adjacent Greenland ice sheet and internal naturally-induced inertia built into the AMO) may act to thwart this unusually favorable bgd forcing... Wrt, cooler weather for the SE US during the spring, I've noticed that the -ENSO composites as well as extrapolation of the early winter analogs are suggesting a relative break down of this mild pattern over the spring, but it's uncertain whether we will go BN for once and/or this is actually still a legitimate possibility as I will have to re-initialize my analog packages when time permits...
 
On this run, the GFS puts the winter weather in the realistic area's. Still, not much in the way of winter weather. It will change to all rain as WAA kicks in.

Now, here comes my part that I've been watching...

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Looking at preliminary maps before system #2, it does appear that there will probably be colder air in place vs. the 0Z/6Z runs and may be more like the 18Z. Let's see. Could be good.
 
Here is the snow map that takes all frozen as snow. The mountains do well for wave #1.
gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
 
Nice little system trying to get organized with a 1033 HP for wave #2.
 
The energy is not as strong...not going to be a phased bomb this time I don't think...we have a chance!
 
Keep in mind, we go into Truncation now. So the important details lose a chunk of resolution. Not a horrible look through 192 for Wave #2!
 
Less CAD with system #2 vs prior runs but nice track. May still work well for parts of NC.
 
This marks 4 runs in a row of GFS showing a stout system around the same area with wave #2.
 
If you want to score with wave 2 that's about the best way to do it. The northern stream wave out runs the southern wave, you get a cold dry air mass in play then the southern wave comes through. Otherwise its a bomb on the front edge of a colder air mass and some places might change to snow but its meh overall
 
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