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Pattern February Discussion

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Looking better at 120 on 0z than its 18z so far. We'll see where it goes.

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Southward shift on that second system than the 18z run.

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This may end up failing but its much closer than the recent runs have been, trough is coming through in the east, and there's a low pressure and high pressure in the west.
 
Looks a little taller at 162 but that energy that's about to plow into the west coast is about to roll everything east
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I feel like there "should" be more cold air advection at 189. Thickness-Isobar squares very small in cold sector.. But what we're seeing here, folks, is a suppression... Deep south's best friend at this range, tbh.
 
That may be the beginnings of the second system at 180. We'll see, but so far this run is an improvement. Better than it's 18z run I can tell you that.

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I feel like we should setup skype calling in pattern discussions to discuss in person.
 
walking a fine line here. needs to be a little further west plus your racing the energy out west . thread the needle. Ride or die .

of course it's another 00z run with another solution so....

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HUGE cold air at around 200hrs with a suppressed low... some light snow for metro ATL and areas south, smoking cirrus north. Great signal.
 
And there's the storm I've been talking about. High five y'all! HUGE IMPROVEMENT!

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more day 8 + fantasy setups. it will be interesting if we ever get it under day 5

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This is a good look this far out but we have another 0z run and another completely different look. The key will be separation between the two major systems, if the second round comes too fast the cold air won't be able to crash in in time.
 
I really cannot give NorthGaWinterWx enough credit here. He called it a while ago (though probably based on different things).. but regardless the trends he forecasted are coming true.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is a good look this far out but we have another 0z run and another completely different look. The key will be separation between the two major systems, if the second round comes too fast the cold air won't be able to crash in in time.
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Well, if everything comes together, that system may come in at the same time as the cold air does.

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Interesting improved different look that suppressed low appearing this run is great spot but yeah much more interested if this is the look 3 days from now
 
If that second system is closer to the coast at 216...the eastern Carolina's would get some good snow.

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If the next few suites show something like this (energy being held back AT ALL with frontogenesis along the gulf), we have to watch it even closer. Espcially that frontogenesis. At the end of the day, that's what sparks the low. The upper disturbance moves along and the frontogenesis from the stalled front curves vertically creating the low... then said low really matures off in the Atlantic as the upper disturbance, surface low, and western surface high work together.

Interesting for sure, especially if the ridge is just a tad bit further west in which the disturbance would "initiate" the surface low further west and hopefully have a system organize south of Mobile.
 
The 850s look great! Good snow growth with those kind of temps.

Now do y'all think I was talking a load of crap? Lol. We're 7-8 days away from this event, hopefully it will verify because I want to see some good wet snow falling before winter is over. We had enough of this spring weather long enough. Time to make up for it!

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CMC has the low moving from western Oklahoma to west virginia in 6 hours between 150-156hrs, effectively avoiding the high pressure.
 
The second system is being held back at first on the 0z CMC. That look at 150-156 doesn't look right. The cold front from the first system has passed so there would obviously be NW winds helping to push that second system further south. I'd would also like the Arctic HP to come down faster.

At hr 144 on CMC, I'd like for that HP to be around Montana or over the western Dakotas. Which it may cause it would be moving in after the first system.

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Holy wow, the 0Z GFS says I see my 1st flakes in at least 2 years early morning of 2/10, which would be right on the 44th anniversary of the historic 3.6" SAV snow of the early morning of 2/10/1973! The two clown maps I've seen actually have accumulation on the immediate coast of SC down almost to SAV. What starts out as cold rain changes to snow late THU night due to ~1/3" of qpf falling after 850 temp.'s fall below 0C. This precip. falls as a result of an Arctic front that comes down (helped by a solid -AO) and then stalls out over central FL. Then as 500 mb energy comes in from the NW and turns the 500 mb flow from W to a moist WSW, a 1015 mb sfc low forms just east of Cape Canaveral and only very slowly moves ENE ~300-350 miles SE of the SC coast.

This is a dream run for me because I know the chances are almost 100% that it won't look anything like this on the very next run. The one thing in the back of my mind, however, is that the 2nd week in Feb. for whatever reason is a major peak for these freak far south setups that give measurable snow to the SAV-CHS corridor as well as other Deep South/coastal locations. Of 14 0.5"+ SN/IP at SAV since the 1870's (~1 every 10 years), a whopping 7 of them were during the short 2/8-15 interval!! That's about 1 every 20 years there just during that week long stretch!
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow, the 0Z GFS says I see my 1st flakes in at least 2 years early morning of 2/10, which would be right on the 44th anniversary of the historic 3.6" SAV snow of the early morning of 2/10/1973! The two clown maps I've seen actually have accumulation on the immediate coast of SC down almost to SAV. What starts out as cold rain changes to snow late THU night due to ~1/3" of qpf falling after 850 temp.'s fall below 0C. This precip. falls as a result of an Arctic front that comes down (helped by a solid -AO) and then stalls out over central FL. Then as 500 mb energy comes in from the NW and turns the 500 mb flow from W to a moist WSW, a 1015 mb sfc low forms just east of Cape Canaveral and only very slowly moves ENE ~300-350 miles SE of the SC coast.

This is a dream run for me because I know the chances are almost 100% that it won't look anything like this on the very next run. The one thing in the back of my mind, however, is that the 2nd week in Feb. for whatever reason is a major peak for these freak far south setups that give measurable snow to the SAV-CHS corridor as well as other Deep South/coastal locations. Of 14 0.5"+ SN/IP at SAV since the 1870's (~1 every 10 years), a whopping 7 of them were during the short 2/8-15 interval!! That's about 1 every 20 years there just during that week long stretch!
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It's right in that climo zone we have spoken of for the last half-month Larry. Anything is possible.
 
00z Euro sucks outside TN( day 8 dusting). and that's even pushing it.

Euro drags all the energy together with the first major wave. Looks like a pentagram of doom even.
 
Shawn said:
00z Euro sucks outside TN( day 8 dusting). and that's even pushing it.

Euro drags all the energy together with the first major wave. Looks like a pentagram of doom even.
Click to expand...
pic please,lol
 
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