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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Not that it matters because it's the gfs on it's own little island but did anyone else notice it just suppressed this system so far that it develops east of the Bahamas? Lol.... what. Boy need a helluva NW trend for that work out hahaha
 
bouncycorn said:
I just heard that the GFS has issues.


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Couldn't have said it better myself!
I think the storm will start to show back up, atleast by Sun/Mon!? Atleast it looks to get cold for a bit
 
metwannabe said:
Not that it matters because it's the gfs on it's own little island but did anyone else notice it just suppressed this system so far that it develops se of the Bahamas? Lol.... what. Boy need a helluva NW trend for that work out hahaha
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The NW trend is no joke! By Monday, this thing could show up as an apps runner! Very chaotic pattern! And I think models did well with today's " event" in NC, never was gonna be much, but the p types and position seem to line up with the models!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
The NW trend is no joke! By Monday, this thing could show up as an apps runner! Very chaotic pattern! And I think models did well with today's " event" in NC, never was gonna be much, but the p types and position seem to line up with the models!?
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All of the models suppress the low now. Surly it'll come northwest with 6-7 days to go.


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metwannabe said:
Not that it matters because it's the gfs on it's own little island but did anyone else notice it just suppressed this system so far that it develops east of the Bahamas? Lol.... what. Boy need a helluva NW trend for that work out hahaha
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I still dont believe there will be a storm , but I've been wrong plenty of times before

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Storm5 said:
I still dont believe there will be a storm , but I've been wrong plenty of times before

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We'll have to still watch it. I honestly don't think there will be a storm BUT I think it's a legitimate possibility. We probably won't have any idea until Sunday or Monday, once the initial system moves onto land.


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Tarheel1 said:
The NW trend is no joke! By Monday, this thing could show up as an apps runner! Very chaotic pattern! And I think models did well with today's " event" in NC, never was gonna be much, but the p types and position seem to line up with the models!?
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With the exception of the gfs which has been consistent in showing some light accums up here and all I've seen are a handful of ip's.... Of course I blame this on SD & storm for jinxing but I'm not bitter lol
 
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Last nights Para 00z GFS brought a snowy solution for TN/Coastal SC/NC.

06z slowly coming now.
 
RollTide18 said:
6z GFS never has any good news
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Got to wait about 3-4 days, gonna get NAM'd!

Let me add: LOL at JB!!!!!!
Winters not over, he says!! Then kicks out the holy grail March analog
1960!!!! :(
 
I quickly glanced at the 6z GFS and think this one can be tossed. I think "no storm" is a bigger possibility than a winter storm happening but not with a storm developing, then suddenly going poof within 12 hours. You'll know earlier, either the first wave will absorb too much of this storm or there won't be a storm that appears period...
 
I see that the 06z lost the storm. The GFS may bring it back, it may not.

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lmfao, the CFSv2 & EPS continues to torch virtually the entire North American continent this month... It's been a lot of fun to watch Joe Bastardi kick and scream while another one of his winter forecasts goes up in flames. Even if we turn cooler later in the month (which isn't too unrealistic) going to be hard to erase the damage we're about to do the next week or two... Starting to feel just a tad better about my February forecast, granted I likely wasn't warm enough...
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Webberweather53 said:
lmfao, the CFSv2 & EPS continues to torch virtually the entire North American continent this month... It's been a lot of fun to watch Joe Bastardi kick and scream while another one of his winter forecasts goes up in flames. Even if we turn cooler later in the month (which isn't too unrealistic) going to be hard to erase the damage we're about to do the next week or two... Starting to feel just a tad better about my February forecast, granted I likely wasn't warm enough...
View attachment 12

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at this point it wouldn't bother me one bit to roast all of February . I haven't looked so I have no idea but it would be fun to make a run at the warmest February on record .

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The 06z DGEX still has it...kinda lol

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Other than the EPO (which really is a concern all things Pacific considered), the today indices generally continue to look good rolling into later next week (IMHO)

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GeorgiaGirl said:
12z GFS looks more realistic...sadly on the no storm side. I can't find the storm at all and think the monster cutter just absorbs it.
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Meh, its there. but probably gonna get sheared out/crushed.
there.png
 
That second low looks more healthy than 06z...also it is being held back further than 06z. We'll see what happens.

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Had to delete that post as I realized I was looking at the wrong thing. Don't like this set up right now, I'll be surprised if it survives.
 
Per the prelim maps, IF there is going to be a storm, it appears it would be quite far south this run.
 
Second system is different on 12z than 0z EPS...in fact the EPS doesn't even have the LP

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Well at least we have a low cooking over Texas this run so far. Not that it survives, but better than what 06z had at the time.
 
That low will interact with Gulf if it will survive

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Trough axis is probably too far east to be really awesome may be a huge hit for eastern NC/OBX
 
Nice little snow shower into AL MS
 
Yeah so far a snow shower across AL and parts of MS. Jumps over GA. Now trying to get something for the Carolinas, CAE East me guesses.
 
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