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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Well, we are hanging on to the MJO hope again, right? Ugh what a disappointment for sure.
 
Storm5 said:
not yet. it's still early . plus a brief warmup was given around mid month. Still think we go colder 2nd half as Shane has been saying for weeks .



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We certainly will need the negative heights in the pacific to get farther west otherwise this isn't looking good
 
Storm5 said:
not yet. it's still early . plus a brief warmup was given around mid month. Still think we go colder 2nd half as Shane has been saying for weeks .



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I haven't given up. I will come the 1st of March...LOL


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Can we get a vote to rename this thread The February Furnace?


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Storm5 said:
well the rat saw his shadow. says six more weeks of winter . So we have the MJO and the groundhog saying cold weather is coming

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So now we have : the rat, MJO, JB, Judah Cohen, and analogs, on our side!! What could go wrong! :(
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The rat of the South is against us, and is 30% more accurate than the rat of the North!
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He has a 60% accuracy rate. Also has models on his side. Lets find some severe or something, at least.
 
The Euro 0z OP and the EPS still has the second system. By the way, I don't believe that groundhog prediction. Lol. It's already been an early spring all winter.

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I would hope nobody believes a groundhog predicts the winter. Lol if any object goes out in daylight it will cast a shadow. Crazy old wise tales. Still fun to see what it does every year
 
Honestly, I'm ready for winter to end, rush through spring/summer, to get back to fall/winter to start fresh again lol.
 
It seems to me like the pacific wants to establish a split flow, but the systems crash into the ridge instead of undercutting it. Screws everything up.
 
Other than the EPO (which may be the fly in the ointment with modeling and with what actually & ultimately happens), the other main indices look pretty good by the 10th to 14th, as of today, anyway:
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12z GFS looks better than it's 06z run. The second system is being held back and the Arctic HP is a tick further south. This look is looking good so far.

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If the 6z GEFS is correct, it's going to take a while post D16 to even start to get the source region recharged. 850s throughout Canada, and up through Greenland are just blazing. Same with 0z and also the 0z GEPS. Can't see the EPS out that far, but I'm sure it's probably similar. Hopefully, by April, we can start to see legit cold return to Canada. :eek:
 
Rain Cold said:
If the 6z GEFS is correct, it's going to take a while post D16 to even start to get the source region recharged. 850s throughout Canada, and up through Greenland are just blazing. Same with 0z and also the 0z GEPS. Can't see the EPS out that far, but I'm sure it's probably similar. Hopefully, by April, we can start to see legit cold return to Canada. :eek:
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yeah and no doubt by then we see a mega -NAO set for the summer months

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