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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Shawn

Shawn

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Continue the February talk here!
 
Euro says .. I'm Dr.No for a reason! LOL That map you had up Shawn, was a real downer. Wonder if the EPS will look anything like the OP?
 
Keep hanging onto the GFS for hope and let's see how that ends for you...LOL!


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Interesting looks from the GFS runs this morning. Doubt 12Z will have the same path, but let's see what it does. Also, if you want to see some clowning, look at the 0Z NAM.
 
horrible 00z EPS run and horribpe 06z gefs run for days 6-10 if your looking for winter weather

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Well, not sure why, but the past few mornings have been drastically colder than forecasted. Got down to 40 here when the low was supposed to be around 50. The GFS seems too warm on the mornings even a few hours out it seems here, so that could mean we could see some interesting things if it keeps up.
 
00z eps post day 10. Nothing says winter like above normal temps
8e5677ae95a3635dd826ca99ea6962d1.jpg
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So, .... Now can we cancel winter!?? With dog farts and the most positive people on the board going negative,I think it's about time! Nothing looks good in long range, short range, or indicies wise! Atleast we had one storm to track that produced, so not as bad as 2012! RIP winter 16/17! You sucked!
 
tractor girl said:
WqpXZPS.jpg
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Not quite sure what this has to do with February other than it will seem like a good time to start planting.
Tarheel1 said:
So, .... Now can we cancel winter!?? With dog farts and the most positive people on the board going negative,I think it's about time! Nothing looks good in long range, short range, or indicies wise! Atleast we had one storm to track that produced, so not as bad as 2012! RIP winter 16/17! You sucked!
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Lol, we will all cliff dive if we are at the end of February and it has been a torch and it will keep looking like a torch. Also, does anyone have the latest model verification scores? I would like to see if they are doing well.
 
Tarheel1 said:
So, .... Now can we cancel winter!?? With dog farts and the most positive people on the board going negative,I think it's about time! Nothing looks good in long range, short range, or indicies wise! Atleast we had one storm to track that produced, so not as bad as 2012! RIP winter 16/17! You sucked!
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not yet. it's still early . plus a brief warmup was given around mid month. Still think we go colder 2nd half as Shane has been saying for weeks .
whatalife said:
Nice...Just the way I like my February...SMH!


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ForsythSnow said:
Not quite sure what this has to do with February other than it will seem like a good time to start planting.
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I'm beginning to think so. I do worry about my budding blueberry bushes. Feb may be torched but I doubt we've seen the last of freezing weather this season.
 
tractor girl said:
I'm beginning to think so. I do worry about my budding blueberry bushes. Feb may be torched but I doubt we've seen the last of freezing weather this season.
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Always seems to freeze after an apparent early spring. That is why I think that if we see a chance of a decent length cold, it will be an end of the month or early March. Not saying it is for sure going to snow then, but something tells me that we will either be surprised, we will see a light event, or nothing at all. But I also feel that with the severe weather already hitting this early, that we will have a slightly lower risk of severe weather come late March and April. I could be wrong of course.
 
well the rat saw his shadow. says six more weeks of winter . So we have the MJO and the groundhog saying cold weather is coming

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We always get a late freeze. Though we may be done with wintrt weather as some may feel i am sure we will get a freeze to destroy early blooming.
 
Storm5 said:
00z eps post day 10. Nothing says winter like above normal temps
8e5677ae95a3635dd826ca99ea6962d1.jpg
e6c844e5e255e0ae257012dd1b3ede11.jpg
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If that verifies might have to start a thread for possibilities for severe wx.
 
Well, we are hanging on to the MJO hope again, right? Ugh what a disappointment for sure.
 
Storm5 said:
not yet. it's still early . plus a brief warmup was given around mid month. Still think we go colder 2nd half as Shane has been saying for weeks .



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We certainly will need the negative heights in the pacific to get farther west otherwise this isn't looking good
 
Storm5 said:
not yet. it's still early . plus a brief warmup was given around mid month. Still think we go colder 2nd half as Shane has been saying for weeks .



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I haven't given up. I will come the 1st of March...LOL


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Can we get a vote to rename this thread The February Furnace?


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Storm5 said:
well the rat saw his shadow. says six more weeks of winter . So we have the MJO and the groundhog saying cold weather is coming

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So now we have : the rat, MJO, JB, Judah Cohen, and analogs, on our side!! What could go wrong! :(
 
ForsythSnow said:
The rat of the South is against us, and is 30% more accurate than the rat of the North!
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He has a 60% accuracy rate. Also has models on his side. Lets find some severe or something, at least.
 
The Euro 0z OP and the EPS still has the second system. By the way, I don't believe that groundhog prediction. Lol. It's already been an early spring all winter.

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I would hope nobody believes a groundhog predicts the winter. Lol if any object goes out in daylight it will cast a shadow. Crazy old wise tales. Still fun to see what it does every year
 
Honestly, I'm ready for winter to end, rush through spring/summer, to get back to fall/winter to start fresh again lol.
 
It seems to me like the pacific wants to establish a split flow, but the systems crash into the ridge instead of undercutting it. Screws everything up.
 
Other than the EPO (which may be the fly in the ointment with modeling and with what actually & ultimately happens), the other main indices look pretty good by the 10th to 14th, as of today, anyway:
4indices.png


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12z GFS looks better than it's 06z run. The second system is being held back and the Arctic HP is a tick further south. This look is looking good so far.

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If the 6z GEFS is correct, it's going to take a while post D16 to even start to get the source region recharged. 850s throughout Canada, and up through Greenland are just blazing. Same with 0z and also the 0z GEPS. Can't see the EPS out that far, but I'm sure it's probably similar. Hopefully, by April, we can start to see legit cold return to Canada. :eek:
 
Rain Cold said:
If the 6z GEFS is correct, it's going to take a while post D16 to even start to get the source region recharged. 850s throughout Canada, and up through Greenland are just blazing. Same with 0z and also the 0z GEPS. Can't see the EPS out that far, but I'm sure it's probably similar. Hopefully, by April, we can start to see legit cold return to Canada. :eek:
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yeah and no doubt by then we see a mega -NAO set for the summer months

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