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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Man talk about threading the needle.

if it's a little faster it's gonna be an inland runner. if it's a little later it's a better event board wide .

forget the High so much of this has to do with what's going on in the NE. confluence is key , if it's any weaker it's a Kentucky special

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Storm5 said:
Man talk about threading the needle.

if it's a little faster it's gonna be an inland runner. if it's a little later it's a better event board wide .

forget the High so much of this has to do with what's going on in the NE. confluence is key , if it's any weaker it's a Kentucky special

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The kentucky bucket? thats good chicken
 
Although it didn't show a storm, the 6z GFS also showed the delayed second wave idea. So it's holding so far, but I need to see it hold through at least the 0z suite and some other guidance at least support the delayed second wave (don't have to show a storm).
 
12z cmc has exactly what we need to fear. less confluence in the NE.....the Kentucky special
201d1bb5be81983b3fcf2553423d1aca.jpg


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Storm5 said:
12z cmc has exactly what we need to fear. less confluence in the NE.....the Kentucky special
201d1bb5be81983b3fcf2553423d1aca.jpg


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Honestly the cmc is not good with 1) multiple systems and 2) timing. Ecmwf, on the other hand, usually is BUT has a north bias.


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No go on the Canadian from what it looks like.

I'd like the see ensemble support for the OP GFS.
 
Shawn said:
No go on the Canadian from what it looks like.

I'd like the see ensemble support for the OP GFS.
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Look at the cmc trend though. It's been trending better and better, even if it isn't good yet.


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bouncycorn said:
Honestly the cmc is not good with 1) multiple systems and 2) timing. Ecmwf, on the other hand, usually is BUT has a north bias.


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but we can't just ignore that solution . in fact the last few gefs runs support a cmc like solution .

let's see what the gefs shows in a few . It's a fine line we are walking with timing . If one thing is off the whole thing changes for better or worse

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Storm5 said:
but we can't just ignore that solution . in fact the last few gefs runs support a cmc like solution .

let's see what the gefs shows in a few . It's a fine line we are walking with timing . If one thing is off the whole thing changes for better or worse

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Yeah there have been a few members showing this scenario so real interested in what gefs shows and of course good old dr. no

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bouncycorn said:
Look at the cmc trend though. It's been trending better and better, even if it isn't good yet.


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look at the gfs over the last 3 days . all.over the road.

again until the ensembles get on board I'm not gonna get too excited .

95 percent of the eps members look nothing like what the gfs op showed. not saying it can't or won't happen . just being realistic at this point. there is very little support at the moment . let's see what the 12z gefs says

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GFS op has been on its own with this storm latley, but will see
 
I'm not really even looking for a winter storm in other models right now, but I do at least need to see the delayed second wave idea pop up in other models. Everything else can be worked out later.

with the idea of possible separation between two major waves, it's going to be hard to work this out, BUT if the waves do phase together again in the future on the models and that sticks (instead of this idea) we can write this off.
 
Here is my video concerning the winter storm on the 12z GFS.

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Don't see how we can't see agreement with some members on the GEFS
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not really even looking for a winter storm in other models right now, but I do at least need to see the delayed second wave idea pop up in other models. Everything else can be worked out later.

with the idea of possible separation between two major waves, it's going to be hard to work this out, BUT if the waves do phase together again in the future on the models and that sticks (instead of this idea) we can write this off.
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will see every run has a different story
 
Storm5 said:
look at the gfs over the last 3 days . all.over the road.

again until the ensembles get on board I'm not gonna get too excited .

95 percent of the eps members look nothing like what the gfs op showed. not saying it can't or won't happen . just being realistic at this point. there is very little support at the moment . let's see what the 12z gefs says

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When does the gefs come out? I always just look at y'all post it and never have bothered to look it up on my own because I don't know to view it. Are these ensembles maps of the snowfall viewable by anybody, or is it something you have to have a weatherbell membership for?
 
Parker said:
When does the gefs come out? I always just look at y'all post it and never have bothered to look it up on my own because I don't know to view it. Are these ensembles maps of the snowfall viewable by anybody, or is it something you have to have a weatherbell membership for?
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it's out not much support. a few have the general idea, but the majority do not

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Threading a needle for sure we would need about a 18 hour head start for the cold before the storm to get a good storm for majority of board
 
GEFS should be a little bit better, at least for the Carolinas. Nothing ground breaking, yet.
 
Shawn said:
GEFS should be a little bit better, at least for the Carolinas. Nothing ground breaking, yet.
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Yeah I mean it's better vs previous runs but that because previous run sucked . But its not a strong storm signal

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Storm5 said:
it's out not much support. a few have the general idea, but the majority do not

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lol, there's more support than last night runs for this storm, not much but better than zero support
 
If the OP continues to show this storm, then I believe we will have more support from gefs, I hope.
 
Storm5 said:
but we can't just ignore that solution . in fact the last few gefs runs support a cmc like solution .

let's see what the gefs shows in a few . It's a fine line we are walking with timing . If one thing is off the whole thing changes for better or worse

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The story of winter in the south. :)
 
Here is a bit further on. The previous member map didn't count the "late bloomer" idea for some areas. It's an improvement, but I'm not too comfy until Euro gets the idea.

gefs_snow_ens_se_37.png
 
Meh gefs says just enough to keep interest but I'm with you guys need some Euro support.

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I mean as much as models have jumped around this year... just looking for gradual improvement of models at this point isn't much to ask at least into Sunday. IF OPs and Ensembles for Euro and GFS can slowly get on same page that's all we are looking for at moment but would prefer to be just a tid bit slower
 
Storm5 said:
Haha desperate times , it's every man for himself . My favorite time a year when people could care less about others and their backyards and focus on their own. must be getting late into winter

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Thats where we are going, board wide.....central nc.....eastern wake county....I dont care I just want mines
 
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