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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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ForsythSnow said:
Probably will be full of discussion on hurricanes, but who knows what summer will bring. Hopefully below normal temps and some more rain. We need it down here.
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The last hurricane I've been through was either Katrina, (got the outter bands) or hurricane Dennis. I can't remember which one. It came in at night, (about 4-5am I believe) it was frightening. I went to my dads and there were two huge oak trees down in the front yard from the hurricane.

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Infrared satellite of the low coming this away. I like how it has the tail going down in the GOM.
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Not sure why I keep looking but the NAM trying to throw a few token flakes on backside of precip tomorrow...

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metwannabe said:
Not sure why I keep looking but the NAM trying to throw a few token flakes on backside of precip tomorrow...

I'm glad someone posted this. seems like the cold air advection usually wrings out a few flurries in the higher elevations in setups like this. I guess the moisture is just getting out about a half day too early?

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Here's your daily reminder of how much modern winters suck. Another beauty from February 1902 almost 3 years to the day after the great blizzard of 1899. Dumped up to a foot and half of snow from RDU to Charlotte.
February 15-17 1902 NC Snow map.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's your daily reminder of how much modern winters suck. Another beauty from February 1902 almost 3 years to the day after the great blizzard of 1899. Dumped up to a foot and half of snow from RDU to Charlotte.
View attachment 159
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ATL got a nice ~2" sleetstorm 2/14-5/1902. ATL does sleet very well and takes it very seriously. If you love sleet as I do, that's one of the better places to be. I'm sure that's the primary reason Tony lives nearby. It can't be anything else.
 
Have some patience guys. We are experiencing the results of a bad combo of a warm AMO and recent Solar ModernMaximum. When the AMO turns cold combined with the upcoming low solar activity it will turn around for snow lovers. Until then its going to be more dumpster fire winters with few decent ones mixed in. Thanks webber for the winter NC snowfall maps.Keep them coming. I save them all.This what we got to look forward to in the future.
 
ColdAMO said:
Thanks webber for the winter NC snowfall maps.Keep them coming. I save them all.This what we got to look forward to in the future.
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Ditto!
I wish Webb would open a library here! Truly ....

P.S. Edit - I wish he's also have some glorious snowfall maps for N FL, but records don't back to the glacial period ... :p
 
What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming below Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -45C in SE Canada, which would almost have to be the coldest air at 850 this winter!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, even the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned! History says it can occur even after an historically hot winter, which may actually make it less unlikely.
 
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GaWx said:
What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming down into Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -40C in SE Canada!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned!
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Yes (!!), in response, it very well could happen from looking at some very long range upper air progs, and crossing fingers as I do so ...
I'm all in for killing azalea buds this year (teach them a lesson about blooming so early)!
 
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Yup, GFS is supporting the EPS, colder pattern late month into early March. Winter is not over, it may seem over for now, but winter will make a late return. GEFS on the MJO is showing that it will be in a weak phase 8 to a weak phase 7 during late month. 14 day AO outlook is showing about neutral, PNA appears that it will stay positive after the 16th but I think it will stay positive during late month. 14 day outlook of the NAO is trending slightly negative after the 17th or so.
 
GaWx said:
What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming below Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -45C in SE Canada, which would almost have to be the coldest air at 850 this winter!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, even the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned! History says it can occur even after an historically hot winter, which may actually make it less unlikely.
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The colder pattern late month into March is certainly possible. Once the stratosphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes, this will cause the cold weather to spill it's beans.
 
SnowHusky said:
The colder pattern late month into March is certainly possible. Once the stratosphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes, this will cause the cold weather to spill it's beans.
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The folks may also want to ignore the 18Z GEFS because it also looks pretty during late month and it also has a bad cold bias. But we can still hope, right?
 
If you live in raleigh and want rain tomorrow I probably just killed it by putting out preemergent

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