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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SD said:
You guys do know this is just leading to an epic cold dump in March or early April

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karma from this end posting here is bad today, but one more shot at redemption -
hasn't this year already dumped enough skat for the boot heels
'night
:confused:
 
I forgot to obey one of my rules with the February 16th precip. That rule is "If it didn't show well before it started being suppressed, it's probably not going to be good as a north trend will always happen no matter what". Alas...

I really hope there isn't even a light freeze after this warm spell. If there is it's just going to mess everything up. Frosts will be fine but not a light freeze. I hope it just stays around seasonal.

Of course with me saying it we'll drop to 25 for just ONE night in 16 days and it's going to ruin the blueberry plants in my backyard.
 
SD said:
You guys do know this is just leading to an epic cold dump in March or early April

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Yeah although there is no reason to think this pattern won't persist. One of those I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.


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Again, even with the ridiculous temp forecasts and obvious "early Spring" idea. I still have a sneaking suspicion of a sleet/ice event somewhere in the SE before it's over.

Personally, I'd rather just head into Spring and skip it.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yeah although there is no reason to think this pattern won't persist. One of those I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.


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I agree about it persisting but we are good at having ugly March and Aprils after warm winters

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I'm back from taking a nap, (which I shouldn't have done lol). Anyway, I checked the 12z EPS, sure does look interesting, starting at day 12.
 
bouncycorn said:
792e0a1791cab834d1923094ff0251f1.jpg


The Glenn hath spoken and over is winter.


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He's been posting them outlooks up all winter. Next winter, I'm not having that crap lol! These outlooks have limited skill, they change these all the time.
 
The Indonesian convection/low frequency ENSO standing wave is beginning to disintegrate as the MJO pushes into the Pacific... Here's the latest 10 day mean divergent wind vectors, OLR, and 200 hpa velocity potential

OlrChiVdiv_tp200hPa_20170212.gif
 
Glenn is usually very conservative anyway but unfortunately, this time he'll be right. This is like those 2011-2013 winters and winters from 2006-2008. Very warm. I hope next winter is at least seasonable because this January was just ridiculous.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Glenn is usually very conservative anyway but unfortunately, this time he'll be right. This is like those 2011-2013 winters and winters from 2006-2008. Very warm. I hope next winter is at least seasonable because this January was just ridiculous.
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As ridiculous as this January was it wasn't nearly as ridiculous as December of last winter ! It just amazes me that even with it being +8 or +9 we still somehow managed to get snow. Meanwhile, February 2015 was like -7 and no snow at all IMBY !
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date in 1899, as many of you are already well aware, a massive blizzard crippled the entire east (& even Gulf) coasts, and the airmass that followed was one of the coldest we've observed in the past few centuries. Temperatures were below freezing for nearly a week straight over the Carolinas, highs nearing the single digits were reported in parts of central NC and sub zero temperatures reached north Florida, blizzard conditions reported in Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg, and icebergs were reported flowing out of the Mississippi River at New Orleans, lol...
A swath of over 10-12"+ of snow fell from the midlands of South Carolina to Maine... Areas just south of Washington DC, the Delmarva and southern NJ performed the best with upwards of 30-36" of snow.
View attachment 144

Here's a picture from Fayetteville, NC following the Great Blizzard of 1899 where about a foot and a half of snow fell...
View attachment 141
View attachment 142

Surface analysis from this event reveals that this was storm began as a prolonged overrunning event over the southeastern US on the leading edge of an incredibly strong arctic airmass, with a surface high pressure center of nearly 1055mb centered over the southern plains. However, as this system approached the Carolinas, it began to deepen rapidly, and the band of wintry precipitation on the northwest side of this area of low pressure expanded and intensified as it passed through SC and continued to do so as it bombed out off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
View attachment 145
View attachment 143
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8 days below freezing here. Incredible.

fd7208d53503b254bf5b691de07ee578.jpg



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