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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SD said:
The pixels are back on the GFS
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_7.png
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Funny. We're looking for snow pixels on a model run and Maine has had 4 feet of snow in the last week. Can we trade climates?
 
mrdaddyman said:
Funny. We're looking for snow pixels on a model run and Maine has had 4 feet of snow in the last week. Can we trade climates?
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No kidding and there is a good chance those pixels won't verify. Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day across the area with clouds and highs in the 40s....oh wait...thats just winter
 
SD said:
No kidding and there is a good chance those pixels won't verify. Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day across the area with clouds and highs in the 40s....oh wait...thats just winter
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HAHA!


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Strongest MJO pulse on record for this time of the year in Ventrice's Velocity Potential MJO index. IMO, it's a more accurate measure of MJO activity in the western hemisphere vs RMM because RMM's OLR component tends to keep it confined to the Maritime Continent/ Indo-West Pacific Warmpool regions. Will be interesting to see how ENSO responds to this
C4odYInWMAAkq6E.jpg
 
SoutheastRidge said:
All I know is that I can not endure another summer like last year. Please God have mercy on us ! I would love a repeat of the 2003 summer !
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That was the most thunderstormy summer I can ever remember. From spring till August there were rarely more than a two to three day stretch without a thunderstorm. Some days we would hear thunder off and on all day long.
 
SD said:
I will take this precip total

nam4km_apcpn_seus_14.png
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That certainly has a better chance to verify then those snow pixels which btw were gone on the 12z gfs.... Still with this system there was a NW trend, that's the only thing we can be sure of in Winter it seems
 
metwannabe said:
That certainly has a better chance to verify then those snow pixels which btw were gone on the 12z gfs.... Still with this system there was a NW trend, that's the only thing we can be sure of in Winter it seems
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Yep. It started out tracking through central Florida on the GFS model last week. We see where it's going to end up.
 
Yes. When GEFS and EPS are in a war, generally the EPS will win.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yep. It started out tracking through central Florida on the GFS model last week. We see where it's going to end up.
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I had thought and stated here that there was a good chance that this time the typical NW trend would not occur due to the historically high +PNA (which is verifying quite well in typical GEFS PNA form by the way as it gets to near or just above +2.0 tomorrow, the highest day in winter since 1983!!) in combo with a strong -AO (not verifying well,,,,the typical GEFS -AO bias is verifying as the peak forecast is only down to near -2 for tomorrow vs the -3 that had been forecasted) and the historically strong phase 8 (which looks to be verifying well...challenging all time Feb record strong phase 8 today).

Actually, this low has sped up quite a bit since the forecasts of mid last week (by ~24 hours) and the entire atmospheric configuration has changed drastically vs what was on especially the GFS. An absolutely horrible performance by the GFS. The Euro to its credit had only one run with the low as far south as near the Gulf coast.
 
SnowHusky said:
He's been posting them outlooks up all winter. Next winter, I'm not having that crap lol! These outlooks have limited skill, they change these all the time.
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I hear you though they have held together pretty well this season.


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ATLwxfan said:
I hear you though they have held together pretty well this season.


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Yeah, I agree, it just seems like Glenn rubs it in everytime GA is under the above normal temps. Lol

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Based on the latest forecast for KATL, it looks like Feb. will likely end up in the 54-56 range, which would be ~7-8 warmer than normal! this comes after a Jan that was nearly 9 warmer than normal and a Dec that was nearly 4 warmer than normal. So, DJF is aiming to be close to 7 warmer than normal or near 52 F. The only other winters on record warmer than 52 are the 54.3 of 1889-90 and the 52.5 of 1879-80. Also nearby is 1931-2 at 51.8.
 
GaWx said:
Based on the latest forecast for KATL, it looks like Feb. will likely end up in the 54-56 range, which would be ~7-8 warmer than normal! this comes after a Jan that was nearly 9 warmer than normal and a Dec that was nearly 4 warmer than normal. So, DJF is aiming to be close to 7 warmer than normal or near 52 F. The only other winters on record warmer than 52 are the 54.3 of 1889-90 and the 52.5 of 1879-80. Also nearby is 1931-2 at 51.8.
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seems like a day for non-weather pursuits, unfortunately :confused:
 
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