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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SD said:
Yep certainly prefer to the CMC look here versus what the GFS is having with the cutoff drifting toward Cuba.
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GFS always does that. On the other hand, the CMC sucks.
 
ATLwxfan said:
In case anyone cares, 12z GFS was nearly an unyielding blowtorch from this weekend on.
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Pretty well sums it up ...
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Euro showing the "big" storm on 2/22 but what a strange track for the LP. Goes from Western Alabama to the southern tip of Florida. Shows a CAD Wedge developing at the same time.
 
One would think the higher resolution NAM will handle the energy/orientation/shearing better. So I wouldn't throw the NAM out.

In fact, it would be one of my main tools from 48 hours out.
 
metwannabe said:
I guess this year, if the QBO is the potential driver for the persistent excessive Indonesian convection, which has basically been a SE adversary all Winter..... then in that regard there is some correlation between the QBO and SE Weather. It's been discussed so many times I know and I also know there is no clear answer (at least for my simple mind) but it just drives me insane sometimes to think we really don't know what drives what....
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Maybe it has been quite influential this winter, but, if so, will it be influential next winter? If so, how would I know BEFORE the winter? And IF it is going to be influential next winter or any winter I'm trying to forecast, what kind of influence would it be? Cold, neutral or warm? I still wonder like I've done probably for 10 years+ how to use the QBO. So, I pretty much ignore it. It may very well be a useful SE winter forecasting tool for some folks. However, if I, myself, don't know how to use that tool, then I'll leave it in the toolbox and instead I'll concentrate on using the many other tools I better know how to use and which have given good results.

If I had a crystal ball and was able to know in advance that there was going to be (averaged out through DJF) a solid +AO (or +NAO or -PNA or -PDO or +EPO or predominance of the MJO being on the right side of the diagram or a strong La Nina), I'd know that the odds would favor a warmer than normal SE winter based on that one particular index. Of course, I consider all of these in combo.

But what about the QBO? From all that I've read, there is nothing that simple to sink your teeth into. Does a +QBO correlate to a cold SE winter, a near normal SE winter, or a warm SE winter? Same question for a -QBO. If there is a simple correlation, it doesn't seem to be high based on any correlation analyses I've done. I mean if it is just a very weak correlatlon, what's the point in even trying to use it? In order to up the correlation, do we also have to know if it is rising, falling, or near steady? Rising but still negative? Rising and positive? Falling? Falling but still positive? Falling and negative? Steady and strongly positive? Steady and strongly negative? Rising and negative with a cooling sun but with the sun still nearer to its max? Rising and negative with a cooling sun and with the sun nearer to its min? Rising and negative with the sun at minimum? Rising and negative with the sun at maximum? Then you have to worry about how strong of a cycle the sun is in and how strong of a cycle the QBO is in. I could go on and on and on. The # of permutations gives me a headache lol! And if one must break down the QBO into numerous very specific permutations like I started to list for it to be useful, many of these very specific permutations will have no more than a handful of real life examples (winters) at most meaning low statistical credibility. For example, if there are exactly two cases of the QBO rising during a weak QBO with it still negative and the sun cooling with it just past maximum during a strong solar cycle, there's no point in analyzing it.
 
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mrdaddyman said:
Euro showing the "big" storm on 2/22 but what a strange track for the LP. Goes from Western Alabama to the southern tip of Florida. Shows a CAD Wedge developing at the same time.
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Oh man! I'm going to look at the Euro asap! Sounds like it has what I've been mentioning.

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GaWx said:
Maybe it has been quite influential this winter, but, if so, will it be influential next winter? If so, how would I know BEFORE the winter? And IF it is going to be influential next winter or any winter I'm trying to forecast, what kind of influence would it be? Cold, neutral or warm? I still wonder like I've done probably for 10 years+ how to use the QBO. So, I pretty much ignore it. It may very well be a useful SE winter forecasting tool for some folks. However, if I, myself, don't know how to use that tool, then I'll leave it in the toolbox and instead I'll concentrate on using the many other tools I better know how to use and which have given good results.

If I had a crystal ball and was able to know in advance that there was going to be (averaged out through DJF) a solid +AO (or +NAO or -PDO, or +EPO or predominance of the MJO being on the right side of the diagram or a strong La Nina), I'd know that the odds would favor a warmer than normal SE winter based on that one particular index. Of course, I consider all of these in combo.

But what about the QBO? From all that I've read, there is nothing that simple to sink your teeth into. Does a +QBO correlate to a cold SE winter, a near normal SE winter, or a warm SE winter? Same question for a -QBO. If there is a simple correlation, it doesn't seem to be high based on any correlation analyses I've done. I mean if it is just a very weak correlatlon, what's the point in even trying to use it? In order to up the correlation, do we also have to know if it is rising, falling, or near steady? Rising but still negative? Rising and positive? Falling? Falling but still positive? Falling and negative? Steady and strongly positive? Steady and strongly negative? Rising and negative with a cooling sun but with the sun still nearer to its max? Rising and negative with a cooling sun and with the sun nearer to its min? Rising and negative with the sun at minimum? Rising and negative with the sun at maximum? Then you have to worry about how strong of a cycle the sun is in and how strong of a cycle the QBO is in. I could go on and on and on. The # of permutations gives me a headache lol! And if one must break down the QBO into numerous very specific permutations like I started to list for it to be useful, many of these very specific permutations will have no more than a handful of real life examples (winters) at most meaning low statistical credibility. For example, if there are exactly two cases of the QBO rising during a weak QBO with it still negative and the sun cooling with it just past maximum during a strong solar cycle, there's no point in analyzing it.
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Yeah the QBO took me a while to wrap my head around as well and there are a lot of non-linear interactions w/ solar, ENSO, and other internal variability, but if you really boil it down, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation modifies the static stability and wind shear in the tropical stratosphere and upper troposphere which impacts the placement, frequency, and amplitude of tropical convection and the associated convectively coupled equatorial wave modes, and the wind regimes also alter the deposition of momentum imparted by upwelling of mid-latitude rossby waves, which ultimately impacts their efficiency to break down the polar night jet and disrupt the polar vortex.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the QBO took me a while to wrap my head around as well and there are a lot of non-linear interactions w/ solar, ENSO, and other internal variability, but if you really boil it down, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation modifies the static stability and wind shear in the tropical stratosphere and upper troposphere which impacts the placement, frequency, and amplitude of tropical convection and the associated convectively coupled equatorial wave modes, and the wind regimes also alter the deposition of momentum imparted by upwelling of mid-latitude rossby waves, which ultimately impacts their efficiency to break down the polar night jet and disrupt the polar vortex.
Click to expand...

I rest my case lol!
 
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