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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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As we know over many, many of years the southeast US winters are changing. Their getting warmer and seems like spring is making an appearance earlier every year. As the climate is warming, this will obviously cause less snow events, but it can mean bigger snow storms. As we know that, moisture holds better in warmer air masses than cooler air masses. More water evaporates into the atmosphere, The air's water-holding capacity rises about 7 percent with each warming of 1c (about 2F) of warming. The warming results in air that becomes supersaturated with water that can bring heavy rainfall or snowfall if it's cold enough. I truly believe that after such a warm winter a significant snowstorm can occur, especially as the transition occurs from winter to spring.

If we go back to 2010, the east experienced below normal temps. for an extended period of time and back to back winter events even in the southeastern states. In fact, in Feb. of 2010 every state (except Hawaii) had snow on the ground. Think again that winter is over, things can happen, don't let the above normal temps fool you.
 
GaWx said:
The folks may also want to ignore the 18Z GEFS because it also looks pretty during late month and it also has a bad cold bias. But we can still hope, right?
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Please wake me when this winter quits teasing 15 days out...LOL!


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Any other year and I'd be doing cartwheels
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I would love to be pleasantly surprised but I think this winter is done. My only caveat is...later on this month or early March areas in the upper south that are north of I-40 might get a winter storm but who knows. We're too far out to really tell on that.

Next year almost has to be at a very minimum near seasonal, this winter was much worse than last year. Last year only had one month that was really well above and this year is likely to have two that are well above and one that was slightly above. Flirting with 80 in January even if its a couple times is purely crazy. I've seen plenty of 60s-70s in my past in January...but 80? In what's typically the coldest month of the year?

It'd be just wonderful if we topped off this really warm winter with a hard freeze in March to help ruin fruit trees/bushes.
 
PV may be paying a visit close by but 2 M temps are a blowtorch on the GFS in the long range. Hate to be negative but that Boundary Layer is going to be a bear to deal with by March 1st.
 
For the folks that have forgotten or just don't know, early to mid March can still get very cold deep down into the US. For example, on 3/2/1980 there was snow falling in much of the SE with temperatures as cold as the teens during the daytime! On 3/13/1993, the Storm of the Century caused heavy snow and blizzard conditions for many followed by lows down into the teens and even the single digits in some places like Birmingham. These kinds of temperatures would challenge the coldest all of this winter.

March, 1960, was the coldest month of the entire winter for much of the SE with 10 degrees for the coldest at Atlanta! It was colder than an average January there! There wasn't just one nor just two but THREE major winter storms there during the 1st half of March!!! They don't get major winter storms but about once every 2 winters on average.

Two more examples: March of 1932 and March of 1890 were each colder than Dec, Jan, or Feb at Atlanta and probably much of the SE. Those were two of the three warmest winters on record in much of the SE.

Don't count your winter chickens before the March lion has his say!
 
The eps has a similar look from days 10-12 but it washes out by d15. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pretty decent shot of cold at months end into early March. As for a wintry threat...ehh

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GaWx said:
For the folks that have forgotten or just don't know, early to mid March can still get very cold deep down into the US. For example, on 3/2/1980 there was snow falling in much of the SE with temperatures as cold as the teens during the daytime! On 3/13/1993, the Storm of the Century caused heavy snow and blizzard conditions for many followed by lows down into the teens and even the single digits in some places like Birmingham. These kinds of temperatures would challenge the coldest all of this winter.

March, 1960, was the coldest month of the entire winter for much of the SE with 10 degrees for the coldest at Atlanta! It was colder than an average January there! There wasn't just one nor just two but THREE major winter storms there during the 1st half of March!!! They don't get major winter storms but about once every 2 winters on average.

Two more examples: March of 1932 and March of 1890 were each colder than Dec, Jan, or Feb at Atlanta and probably much of the SE. Those were two of the three warmest winters on record in much of the SE.

Don't count your winter chickens before the March lion has his say!
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And on Archer Rd? LOL
Seriously asking!
No time to deal with weather in detail for 3 days - but good info!
Phil
 
SD said:
The eps has a similar look from days 10-12 but it washes out by d15. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pretty decent shot of cold at months end into early March. As for a wintry threat...ehh

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we're all singin' Dixie ...

frosty morn
old times etc...
(not the political part)
 
SD said:
If you live in raleigh and want rain tomorrow I probably just killed it by putting out preemergent

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I didn't think there was any left in the RDU area!? Somebody bought it all, I thought!? :(
 
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