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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Ukmet


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The GFS has been trending faster on every run since the 12Z run of yesterday. Today's 12Z GFS' 144 hour position is off of the SE coast:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Yesterday's 12Z GFS run's comparable time, hour 168, had it way back in the NW Gulf:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Yesterday's 12Z GFS didn't have the storm off the SE coast for another 24 hours! I'd prefer a slower trend to allow more of the cold high to first penetrate the E US.
 
Webb - in all seriousness here - given the deep Pac tropics we've been seeing, and despite all of the relatively good teleconnections we've seen off and on this winter (and really generally "good" the next week to 10 days), what if the AO and NAO and EPO were positive, the PNA negative - all in all just the opposite of a "textbook" cold, could the whole thing work in "reverse" and actually cause cold in the SE? I hope this makes sense - if not, PM me and we'll get into it deeper, but this is right up your alley! Phil
 
MBell said:
Holy Crap! It's hot as hell there! It's even near 80 in Denver O_O.....this has to be rare???
Click to expand...

It's not as rare as you think. Here's a great example from last March of how wild the weather can get on the front range of the Rockies. Northglenn, CO is just outside Denver. It's 73F on March 23rd, and then the very next day 20" of snow fell...
Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 4.13.29 PM.png
 
Jon said:
We are kinda screwed any way. It will remain suppressed I think without a bit of a phase. Problem is the phase has to be just right for say the NE gulf state counties and the NC Piedmont...not sure what I want, really.


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Click to expand...
Doesn't this just about sum up our Winter?!
 
GaWx said:
The GFS has been trending faster on every run since the 12Z run of yesterday. Today's 12Z GFS' 144 hour position is off of the SE coast:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Yesterday's 12Z GFS run's comparable time, hour 168, had it way back in the NW Gulf:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Yesterday's 12Z GFS didn't have the storm off the SE coast for another 24 hours! I'd prefer a slower trend to allow more of the cold high to first penetrate the E US.
Click to expand...

If it continues to trend faster, forget it. That is not at all what we want.
 
Precip way South. 850s okay in the carolinas / ne georgia. surface chilling down.
no moisture.
 
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