Pattern February Discussion Part II

[Shawn]

Even the slower ensemble members with the Low in a good track in the Gulf are snowless. The GEFS has been showing this with the warmth too, even with the good track.

There are no monster members on ensembles. There haven't been.

 

[whatalife]

Yeah, I don't like the more northerly track at all of the 12Z Euro (supported by the 12Z EPS and the 12Z JMA fwiw) vs 0Z Euro. I have been saying that with the extreme +PNA along with the strong -AO that I didn't think the typical N/NW trend of the GFS would necessarily occur. I'm still not convinced that the actual track won't be suppressed and will be NW of the GFS tracks. I would like to remind folks that today's 0Z Euro Gulf coast track was the only one that was nearly that far south as the prior 7 or so runs had a low much further north well inland in the SE US. So, today's 0Z Euro was a southern outlier vs its prior runs. Today's 12Z run was getting back to its norm of the last few days so to speak. It isn't as if the Euro is trending north. That tells me that despite 12Z EPS support, that perhaps the 0Z Euro further south run is a sign that it will go back south on later runs.

Well...Only time will time...The only thing I can say about today's 12z runs is that CMC was close to something real nice for the Carolinas...LOL!


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[Jon]

The 12Z EPS mean is supporting the further north track of the 12Z Euro and the NE blizzard.

Still a ton of suppressed members and lots of spread. Lots of lows off the coast of NC/SC 00z Thurs. Of course, mean precip will tell you all you need to know...0.4" QPF over NC/SC = suppressed, with 1-2" out to sea.

 

[Stormlover]

This is where DT says it will be snowing Wed evening/thu am

 

[accu35]

Well...Only time will time...The only thing I can say about today's 12z runs is that CMC was close to something real nice for the Carolinas...LOL!


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Yeah CMC had that good look to it.still good ways out

 

[Shawn]

Here's your 12z GGEM Ensemble tracks: Not sure what pressure it needs to be to show

 

[pcbjr]

Despite teleconnections and every thing else that would normally suggest something positive, the cold is on the other side of the world, and what little bit there is on this side is locked in Canada; could change but not likely, not soon, anyway.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Despite teleconnections and every thing else that would normally suggest something positive, the cold is on the other side of the world, and what little bit there is on this side is locked in Canada; could change but not likely, not soon, anyway.

Well, if you look at fantasy land GFS, it's got our cold!

 

[pcbjr]

Well, if you look at fantasy land GFS, it's got our cold!

I saw that and am not debating - just cannot for the life of me figure out reasonably how it gets shunted down like that based on upper air forecasts ... but maybe I'm blind today .... LOL

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Despite teleconnections and every thing else that would normally suggest something positive, the cold is on the other side of the world, and what little bit there is on this side is locked in Canada; could change but not likely, not soon, anyway.

My goodness. 54 in Hong Kong ? They are further south than Key West in latitude. Apparently in Eastern Asia it's easier to get cold air further south than it is in Eastern North America.

 

[pcbjr]

My goodness. 54 in Hong Kong ? They are further south than Key West in latitude. Apparently in Eastern Asia it's easier to get cold air further south than it is in Eastern North America.

My son lives in Tokyo and he's seriously considering a move back to the SE for that very reason!

 

[ForsythSnow]

I saw that and am not debating - just cannot for the life of me figure out reasonably how it gets shunted down like that based on upper air forecasts ... but maybe I'm blind today .... LOL

I think it is a strong low phasing, then stalling on the coast. It was just for laughs anyways since we all know that the 850s would never be below freezing near Miami in this winter. Lol

 

[pcbjr]

I think it is a strong low phasing, then stalling on the coast. It was just for laughs anyways since we all know that the 850s would never be below freezing near Miami in this winter. Lol

Yeah - I refrained from posting a corresponding 2m temp map (which would have also been for laughs) lest you might think I was being obtuse (which would never be my intent, anyway - I love the education here)! But, in all seriousness - who would want to go to, or anywhere near, Miami - this winter or otherwise .... LMAO

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol, I love when people say weather in NC or the southeastern US is crazy... That's nothing compared to the high plains. Take Guymon, OK on the OK panhandle for ex... Currently 91F, forecast to snow in < 48 HR. Lmao

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Lol, I love when people say weather in NC or the southeastern US is crazy... That's nothing compared to the high plains. Take Guymon, OK on the OK panhandle for ex... Currently 91F, forecast to snow in < 48 HR. Lmao
View attachment 75

Yeah i know. Outside of places like Phoenix and LA I would say cities like Atlanta and Charlotte have some of the most boring weather in the US.

 

[GaWx]

Despite teleconnections and every thing else that would normally suggest something positive, the cold is on the other side of the world, and what little bit there is on this side is locked in Canada; could change but not likely, not soon, anyway.

1. Could it be the abnormal amount of Indonesian convection? A pro met I talk to is convinced that's why the E US has been so warm this winter despite some indices being favorable for cold at times.

2. Keep in mind that the AO, NAO, and PNA will be much more favorable for cold in about 5-6 days vs how they are now although the EPO may be less favorable. Then we may very well have a few days of colder than normal in much of the SE.

 

[pcbjr]

Lol, I love when people say weather in NC or the southeastern US is crazy... That's nothing compared to the high plains. Take Guymon, OK on the OK panhandle for ex... Currently 91F, forecast to snow in < 48 HR. Lmao
View attachment 75

Webb - are you possibly suggesting that Miami might get snow (just kidding, of course!) LMAO - Phil

 

[pcbjr]

1. Could it be the abnormal amount of Indonesian convection? A pro met I talk to is convinced that's why the E US has been so warm this winter despite some indices being favorable for cold at times.

2. Keep in mind that the AO, NAO, and PNA will be much more favorable for cold in about 5-6 days vs how they are now although the EPO may be less favorable. Then we may very well have a few days of colder than normal in much of the SE.

On point #1, I could not agree more - it has been a deep tropical cluster "you know what" most of the winter.
On point #2, that's a drum you and I keep beating - now if only the weather gods would dance to the rhythm!

 

[MBell]

Lol, I love when people say weather in NC or the southeastern US is crazy... That's nothing compared to the high plains. Take Guymon, OK on the OK panhandle for ex... Currently 91F, forecast to snow in < 48 HR. Lmao
View attachment 75

Holy Crap! It's hot as hell there! It's even near 80 in Denver O_O.....this has to be rare???

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah i know. Outside of places like Phoenix and LA I would say cities like Atlanta and Charlotte have some of the most boring weather in the US.

Yeah, it's amazing what low background relative humidities and adjacent topography can do to a region's climate. In March, it's not uncommon to see temperatures well into the 80s over the front range of the Colorado Rockies, including areas like Denver, and then a blizzard shows up within 24-36 HR, and to think we whine when temperatures are in the 50s and 60s the day before a winter storm shows up in the SE US...