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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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the eps does not really support the ops huge phase storm. I actually think the gefs is gonna win out with a suppressed mess but we will see

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Moisture south, but around Mid 30's through here and cooling. Of course we'd likely be able to get snow out of it.. if we get the moisture in CAE:

gfs_T850_us_23.png


This favors a good CAE/I-20 storm.
 
whatalife said:
Yep and that sucks b/c you and I know how this will workout in the end for us...LOL


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It's perfect climo for us. Timing and precip issues. But if this solution verifies and the wave isn't sheared into CRAP, we have a chance at a good event here. Just can't get excited with no GEFS support of actual snow vs rain.
 
I know alot of us is not feeling this "storm" but what you have to watch out for is that moisture sheild creeping up, if that were to happen places in the upper south would do good with snow
 
Shawn said:
It's perfect climo for us. Timing and precip issues. But if this solution verifies and the wave isn't sheared into CRAP, we have a chance at a good event here. Just can't get excited with no GEFS support of actual snow vs rain.
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I agree and Charlie may be right w/a suppressed system verifying but we'll see...


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The indices don't really support there being a monster storm in the NE but then again, this winter has done everything but go with climo.
 
accu35 said:
I know alot of us is not feeling this "storm" but what you have to watch out for is that moisture sheild creeping up, if that were to happen places in the upper south would do good with snow
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Where are you from? I'm in NE GA, this event may turn out good for me...if there will be an event.

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There's a lot of factors to consider with this system. A lot revolve around just timing. Then add all the energy flying around to it. While this might not end up being a massive storm for some, there are signs that it can pull a rabbit out of it's hat for a few lucky areas.

We won't be close to knowing the likely outcome for 3 days or so. Even then, will still have to keep an eye on it.
 
The 12z GFS Para doesn't get torn apart until later but it has what I'm afraid of, a good climo track going to waste because there simply isn't enough cold air.
 
SnowHusky said:
Where are you from? I'm in NE GA, this event may turn out good for me...if there will be an event.

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Well I'm from South West Bama, but I was really speaking upper south up towards your way
 
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