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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Yeah, if it would kept its act together then the moisture would have been north, then it could have gotten real interested. I'm not writing this off yet still 6/7 days away.
 
Well, no sign up from me from this run. I can't get on that very excited list yet. Lol.

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I honestly don't see a solution In which many of us //ESP ga folks// see widespread snow. It seems that moisture and temperature are having a tight + relationship, meaning nothing is forcing the low level warm air to stay south and cold air to push in.


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This makes me bothered, if it was 50-60 degrees the moisture wouldn't stay south. It would be rain, 2-4". Faceplam and SMH!

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On the maps I have there's not much difference between the GEFS mean and GFS. A couple minor ones but not big ones.
 
On my free maps, the Euro trended south again...but as a difference from the other runs I saw, it places a 998 MB low off of the SC coast and then bombs out later at 955. Think it phased but late.

Temps likely aren't good.
 
ForsythSnow said:
After those runs, this thing looks bad. I doubt it will recover to be a snowstorm for anyone. It was close, but the trends are sheared apart and south.
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Well the Euro sure as heck is not sheared, 998 low off coast of SC, but is too north and warm. It then bombs into a hurricane 955 in the Atlantic. It seems to me it will be hard to find a happy medium between GFS and Euro that gives us a snowstorm.
 
0z Euro has a good look if the northern energy speeds up or out ULL slows down, one of the two. Until all models lock on the some solution at 500mb it's hard to call this one off. At this point however I really think NC is the only state at play here, not seeing signs for a cold press early enough for other states to get in on the action. A phase could create some magic possibly on the back end though.

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I agree Jon. Even here in NC we need the low to be where the GFS has it further south, then hope a well timed phase blows this thing up far enough south, or is a little slower with the energy than the Euro. Then hope there is just enough cold air available Lol.
 
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Also, I don't wanna be that guy, but - the ULL energy won't come ashore and be properly sampled until tomorrow...so things can change a bit once that happens as more observations are pumped into the models by tomorrow's 00z runs


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With the indices the way they are right now, I would bet on the more amped Euro solution right now, but also need the stronger portrayed Atlantic blocking of the GFS for us southerners to have a chance
 
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