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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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This morning's indices update:

1. The GEFS forecast peak for 2/15-6 before bias adjustment is the highest yet, +2.1! After bias adjustment, it is +2.2. As I have said several times, the GFS has generally been slightly underestimating the +PNA . This would be the first +2.0+ PNA during met. winter since all of the way back in 1983!!

2. The GEFS -AO forecast peak remains near -3 (after bias adj.) for 2/15. This would be the most negative AO in Feb since 2013.

3. The GEFS NAO forecast still has a dip into slightly neg. territory ~2/14-16 before going back positive.

4. The EPS based MJO forecast still has it peaking near a very strong 3 centered on 2/14-5. This will be the strongest phase 8 peak in February since 1999! The only other Feb phase 8 at 3+ on record (records back to 1975) is 1988.

5. Whereas recent model consensus is grim for SE snow chances 2/15-6, I'm still watching it quite closely, especially with that being during peak climo for major SE snow.
 
GaWx said:
This morning's indices update:

1. The GEFS forecast peak for 2/15-6 before bias adjustment is the highest yet, +2.1! After bias adjustment, it is +2.2. As I have said several times, the GFS has generally been slightly underestimating the +PNA . This would be the first +2.0+ PNA during met. winter since all of the way back in 1983!!

2. The GEFS -AO forecast peak remains near -3 (after bias adj.) for 2/15. This would be the most negative AO in Feb since 2013.

3. The GEFS NAO forecast still has a dip into slightly neg. territory ~2/14-16 before going back positive.

4. The EPS based MJO forecast still has it peaking near a very strong 3 centered on 2/14-5. This will be the strongest phase 8 peak in February since 1999! The only other Feb phase 8 at 3+ on record (records back to 1975) is 1988.

5. Whereas recent model consensus is grim for SE snow chances 2/15-6, I'm still watching it quite closely, especially with that being during peak climo for major SE snow.
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Thanks Larry for this info...


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SD said:
Too steep of a height field out front. When it hits that accelerated flow it gets channeled and sheared. My only real negative out of that gfs run is the faster eastward movement of the upper low. There was a NE trend in the NE

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Seems models tend to weaken/open up ULL too quick sometimes, it really wouldn't take much for this to be a tick stronger or stay closed off a little longer to slow it down just enough
 
metwannabe said:
Seems models tend to weaken/open up ULL too quick sometimes, it really wouldn't take much for this to be a tick stronger or stay closed off a little longer to slow it down just enough
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Yeah it always seems like in the situations the models are too fast with the overall evolution of the shortwave whether it be closing it off or opening it up. I just love the fact we are still 5-6 days away so a lot can change/trend in a much more favorable direction
 
metwannabe said:
Seems models tend to weaken/open up ULL too quick sometimes, it really wouldn't take much for this to be a tick stronger or stay closed off a little longer to slow it down just enough
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Yep. It's been seen many times where ULL's will stay stronger longer than advertised. Robert from wxsouth was all over this a few years back. Has anyone reached out to him about joining the forum?
 
packfan98 said:
Yep. It's been seen many times where ULL's will stay stronger longer than advertised. Robert from wxsouth was all over this a few years back. Has anyone reached out to him about joining the forum?
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He would be a great addition we as a staff have really tried to not "spam" the site. If folks would like to pass the word along though I dont think anyone here would mind :)
 
SD said:
Yeah it always seems like in the situations the models are too fast with the overall evolution of the shortwave whether it be closing it off or opening it up. I just love the fact we are still 5-6 days away so a lot can change/trend in a much more favorable direction
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Totally agree...So much can and will change. Until we get part of this wave on shore it is wise not to put to many eggs in one basket.


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whatalife said:
Totally agree...So much can and will change. Until we get part of this wave on shore it is wise not to put to many eggs in one basket.


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True, someone may still have a chance, but a low one at the moment. If what is being said about the energy being improperly handled is true, we should see a shift in the models by Sunday.
 
metwannabe said:
I would love to have his input over here.... it really is amazing how many great posters have been "run away" from weather boards over the years.
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It's my opinion that some have chosen to leave forums due to poor management. However, so many have decided to use their own social media accounts (Facebook, Youtube, Twitter) instead. It's easier for them to moderate their own site, rather than depending others who may not be of like mind. They can also monetize, and it's easier to keep out the "riff-raff".
 
metwannabe said:
I would love to have his input over here.... it really is amazing how many great posters have been "run away" from weather boards over the years.
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I don't get the whole people have been run away notion. How come none of us have been run away? Why is it only the really good posters or mets that have been run away? There are plenty of good posters still around. Why have they not been run off? I think the primary reason people leave because they think they can get their stuff in front of more people through other channels (and that's where they focus their efforts -- which there's nothing wrong with) as opposed to being run off. Maybe they're focusing on Twitter and FB, or maybe they launch a subscription service. My opinion is that those reasons are a lot more likely than somebody being run off. I mean think about it. If a good poster is being hounded by a jabroni, they can usually handle their own. If they can't, you would think the jabroni would be banned by a mod, which happens quite a bit. Anyway, that's my opinion.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hey man, why is that good? The EPS looks warm. Why do we like to see that? I think I'm missing what you're saying.
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I know it's way too warm, that's why I've been mentioning the potential for severe weather in the SE US with that upper level trough for the past several days...
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't get the whole people have been run away notion. How come none of us have been run away? Why is it only the really good posters or mets that have been run away? There are plenty of good posters still around. Why have they not been run off? I think the primary reason people leave because they think they can get their stuff in front of more people through other channels (and that's where they focus their efforts -- which there's nothing wrong with) as opposed to being run off. Maybe they're focusing on Twitter and FB, or maybe they launch a subscription service. My opinion is that those reasons are a lot more likely than somebody being run off. I mean think about it. If a good poster is being hounded by a jabroni, they can usually handle their own. If they can't, you would think the jabroni would be banned by a mod, which happens quite a bit. Anyway, that's my opinion.
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What happens if people like Eric are constantly crucified by mods for typing words they don't want to be bothered looking up and then they just call him condescending and eventually bann him? Because I'm pretty sure that's what happened to him.
 
Shawn said:
What happens if people like Eric are constantly crucified by mods for typing words they don't want to be bothered looking up and then they just call him condescending and eventually bann him? Because I'm pretty sure that's what happened to him.
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I would say that those are exceptions. Look, I don't mean to say that nobody has ever been run off or treated badly. That's just going to happen from time to time as long as forums like this exist. But the last couple of years, in particular, I've read a lot about how all the good posters have been run off. I just don't think that's the case as much as it is that they've found (for their benefit) better means of expression. Messages boards were the thing before social media and before people figured out they could make money, in some cases, for their services. That's all I'm saying. Again, I didn't mean to indicate that there were zero instances of pushing folks out.
 
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