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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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The ULL is starting to pick up speed than 18z at hr 120. Is there going to be a phase? Huhhh, maybe

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It's a little bit warmer because the cold press from the PV isn't as strong. Either the PV/eastern trough is about to tear this thing up a bit or we're about to see a phase as this seems like it's starting to stretch out now...
 
I'm still of the opinion that this is more defined than the last run but it definitely doesn't do what we really need it to.
 
Warmer and further North with the Low.

Either way, congrats Euro. You will win again.
 
Man, that's close to a phase! Will we start to see a phasing trend? It's a possibility.

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The Euro could just as easily be wrong again like January. It was already trending south over recent runs and I think earlier on (as in days ago) it was showing an Apps Runner.

I still don't think the PV will be as strong as depicted. I think it'll be there but will be weaker.

But if this doesn't phase, a typical climo track isn't going to cut it I don't think. Just not enough cold air.
 
RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...

That thing that is helping with cold is tearing at it. So basically, in the most likely situation, we are screwed if that continues.
 
RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...
Too steep of a height field out front. When it hits that accelerated flow it gets channeled and sheared. My only real negative out of that gfs run is the faster eastward movement of the upper low. There was a NE trend in the NE

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RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...

You see, the thing is, if it wasn't being sheared out, that low track would make me think there'd be more precip further north. In fact I think that's pretty close to 2/12/10 (the low track), maybe a bit further south but not much. But again... cold=???
 
Oye....this just goes *poof* while trying to cross Florida. Again I don't think the PV is going to be as strong as this but the best bet here is likely a phase. If we don't see a phase, this likely either shears out or only has a strip of snow at the top of the precip shield.
 
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