Snowflowxxl
Member
The models are on CRACK
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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Snownut
Member
Looks like most of the models are getting on board with snow tomorrow in a lot of areas. Could be a fun day. If the upstate gets an inch which looks very possible, I'd call it a winter and be happy
We hug this model and scorn all others...it is the truth and all others are false prophets!!!!
12z ICON
Snownut
Member
It's been consistent the last few runs
Showmeyourtds
Member
Isn’t there a bull sh- I mean, banter thread for this nonsense?
My gentle Jesus...if only. Maybe the soundings will throw us a bone
Wish I had some soundings on the ICON, it's the most juiced of any model thus far across Central NC
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Well, it's 35 degrees and I got my first flizzard of the season. Looking forward to the mini snow storm tomorrow!
Snowflowxxl
Member
06z Euro
06z EPS had a nice increase from 00z
00z
06z
06z EPS had a nice increase from 00z
00z
06z
Let’s not even hope for an inch so we’re not disappointed if this is a virga storm... let’s hope for flakes and then be pleasantly surprised by a dusting!
ATLwxfan
Member
I will say FFC likes this model as it tends to forecast temp profiles better in NGa so we shall see. It is juiced up that’s for darn sure.
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12z RGEM will ground you back down to reality a little bit from the NAM/WRF, but it is faster/wetter with the timing of the precip vs 6z.
Six Mile Wx
Member
We’re going into minute casting here in a minute! In about 4 1/2 hrs the 18 hr hrrr should start producing the start of snow in Ga.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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The RGEM is what is keeping me skeptical here. The surface is blazing on it. Mid-levels are fine, but the boundary is ughhhhhly. I really hope the temperature profile on the NAM/WRF models is right.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Can’t believe that’s for noon tomorrow and FFC has us at a high of 50. Something’s gotta give. Hope it’s FFC.
Sis reports brief snow in Auburn
LovingGulfLows
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Most of it comes in the morning hours. It's gonna warm up right after this system exits.
Sounds like rain
Remember last system .. temps were much colder at the ground layer so that even people in wake county saw sleet and snow at the onset (which was like 3-4 PM!!) if we get the rates then we will for sure have the snow
NoSnowATL
Member
Noon tomorrow
3pm
As Kirk Mellish said , the key will be how much moisture will we have during this time period.
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Jessy89
Member
12z gfs still looks good for this
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Ron Burgundy
Member
Dear 9lb, 6oz. Baby Jesus...
12z GFS looks like it sits between the somewhere in the middle which is a uptick for snow for parts of N. GA I mean it's close to being more substantial in the I-20 regions. Western counties in GA are riding a fine line of on-set time of precipitation and temp profiles to being hit good or just cold rain
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks better to me at least on the RGEM at 12Z. Seems about on par with the NAM and WRF models. The HRRR seems skeptical.
LovingGulfLows
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For your area, RGEM is probably fine, but definitely not further south closer to interstate 20. NAM/WRF models are definitely colder down here.
Gilmer County has more/less been in the bullseye for two days now for this Saturday system. I guess I better start heading to Gatlinburg...LOL. (It can be right, at least once, right?)
Jessy89
Member
These soundings north of 85 in Upstate South Carolina on GFS! I’m loving this less then 24hrs out. Just wish it was early morning or night
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Nerman
Member
Looks like the ski resorts are getting plastered from this. Of course, they need it after the recent summertime monsoon that hit...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Nice snow/graupel shower here now.
Six Mile Wx
Member
If this short wave can tap into some leftover moisture from the previous system then someone’s going to hit the jackpot!
Since were throwing around short range models, here's another one...15z RAP.
WXinCanton
Member
You look to be in the sweet spot!!
I'll chase up hwy 136 in Pickens if I have to. 3000 feet should help. Way it looks now I might not have to though.
NoSnowATL
Member
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Nerman
Member
I was just looking at this run on Pivotal. It seems the freezing line is only in NE Georgia on it. Where most others now have the overnight freeze line as far south as Macon. North Atlanta is supposed to get down in the 20's now overnight. It's going to take some time in the morning for it to leave. Combine that with the moisture arriving earlier and you've got the other models popping off with a snow line much further South.
At the beginning of the week my overnight low was forecast to be 35. It's trended lower each day and is currently forecast for 29. The precipitation wasn't supposed to arrive until after lunch around 18z either. Now its showing up around 13z - 14z. The trends have surprisingly been working in our favor. Now if the amped moisture continues to show an increasing trend we might actually have some fun. Fingers crossed!
It was really starting to come down when I left at 5:45am this morning. Got all the way to Ball Ground before it finally let up. I am now working in Kennesaw but there have been a few flurries here and there here too.
Should be a very short chase for you, if needed at all!
That is always a good quick spot to chase. I might risk going up the forest service roads into the Cohuttas if the gate is open. You can get up to 4000 pretty quick there.
I'm hopeful I don't have to chase if the precip can time right. We usually get lucky with this type of setup but we'll see. The cold is certainly holding stronger today that they said.
You can get to the top if you pass the main gate for Ft MTN State Park and head toward the lake (take a left further down the road). The gates will be closed to the other parts of the mountain once you get to the ridge but you have plenty of room to wander.
Nerman
Member
UKMET finally getting on board.
12z yesterday
12z today!
12z yesterday
12z today!