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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

Dawgdaze22 said:
Really dumb question, why does dew point matter?
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Someone correct me if I’m wrong..

The dew point temp is representative of what the ambient air temp would need to be if the humidity was @ 100%.

Therefore, if you’re hoping for snow and your dewpoint is stuck well above freezing And its raining with winds out of the south, you can get along to taking care of other thangs you have to do & not hold out hope
 
This is the reason why you could be in the upper 30’s but still get snow because your dew point is in the 20’s.


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Showmeyourtds said:
Someone correct me if I’m wrong..

The dew point temp is representative of what the ambient air temp would need to be if the humidity was @ 100%.

Therefore, if you’re hoping for snow and your dewpoint is stuck well above freezing And its raining with winds out of the south, you can get along to taking care of other thangs you have to do & not hold out hope
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So my current temp is 28 and dew point is 23.. i think I’m good
 
I’m over here in Social Circle (30/28) hoping to ride the RGEM to victory!! That’s best run I’ve seen for my area (aside from earlier NAM). I’m feeling ok w temps but hoping rates can be high enough to keep column cold thru entire event. Seems like we’re usually struggling to maintain healthy precipitation east of Atl even when temps perform. I rmbr several disasters over years when lookout would get screwed by some weird anomaly over this way (near Athens). I’ve also experienced that same screw zone where precip just seems to get eaten by atmosphere and temps rebound due to lower precip rates. Anyone else familiar w the scenario I describe??
 
GaSnowhound said:
I’m over here in Social Circle (30/28) hoping to ride the RGEM to victory!! That’s best run I’ve seen for my area (aside from earlier NAM). I’m feeling ok w temps but hoping rates can be high enough to keep column cold thru entire event. Seems like we’re usually struggling to maintain healthy precipitation east of Atl even when temps perform. I rmbr several disasters over years when lookout would get screwed by some weird anomaly over this way (near Athens). I’ve also experienced that same screw zone where precip just seems to get eaten by atmosphere and temps rebound due to lower precip rates. Anyone else familiar w the scenario I describe??
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Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Don't think I've seen this posted before during winter weather, but this a current map of the max wetbulb temp. Of course it's straddling just barely south of the I-20 corridor in GA.

EDIT: If the 3z HRRR is right, we should start seeing precip blossoming in MS within the hour.
View attachment 33489
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That’s an important map when it comes to ice storms to determine where the southern extent of the ZR might be.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Really dumb question, why does dew point matter?
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A lower dew point means drier air and a lower wet bulb. A lower wet bulb is good since it means your temperature will bottom out lower when the atmosphere becomes saturated. A low dew point itself can be bad in a way, though, as it’s indicative of a dry atmosphere, and thus you could lose a lot of precip to virga before it starts to reach the ground.
 
Just got out of the theatre. Things still look solid. 4z HRRR was a shaft, but the three previous were great. Guess I need to set an alarm for 6:00am. No sleep in this saturday lol
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
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Maybe, I just know it’s bitten us many times. Lookout has gone off the cliff a few times over years due to this phenomena.....I rmbr once
LovingGulfLows said:
Maybe downsloping from the mountains?
Click to expand...
maybe that was the issue now that u mention. I remember a few occasions where it’d start out snowing at a very nice rate only to put dwn maybe a dusting then just fizzle w warming temps. I know lookout went nuts one time when we all thought we were totally dialed in and yet he, myself and a few others received a complete and total screw job. I’m not picking on lookout bc I was loosing it as well he just beat me to the post but it was an epic fail when all systems appeared to be “go” at onset. I’ve learned to never trust anything but now cast for this area. That being said, how would the winds set up re potential downslope for this event? Seems s/sw overrunning type might be better for us than a wound system w usual dry slot east of apps??
 
5z HRRR is shafts ATL pretty good. I don't really care about the models anymore lol, we will see whats its like when I wake up
1581142745306.png
 
From what I’m seeing most models are initializing too warm some being as bad as 5+ degrees too warm in most areas.
 
Off to bed, but OBS from here: 30 degrees temp, DP up to 27, humidity up to 91%.

Could be a great day here 50 miles north of downtown Atlanta. Good luck to all!

--30--
 
From GSP a few minutes ago:

"All told, we are contemplating a Winter Storm Warning across the northeast GA mountains, and an expansion of the Advisory into the mountain valleys and across the western Upstate of SC. Some sort of mix mention will likely be needed in forecast out across the I-77 corridor as well, including the Charlotte metro area. "
 
bud006 said:
From GSP a few minutes ago:

"All told, we are contemplating a Winter Storm Warning across the northeast GA mountains, and an expansion of the Advisory into the mountain valleys and across the western Upstate of SC. Some sort of mix mention will likely be needed in forecast out across the I-77 corridor as well, including the Charlotte metro area. "
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it about time gsp say something about the upstate it’s go time
 
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