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Wintry February 6th-7th

850's look great for all NC into northern SC on 0z Ukmet,Euro,Canadian suite: These 3 are just dry with qpf: Unlike the Nam and Both GFS. Has to do with handeling at H5. On to the 12z.
 
NCSNOW said:
850's look great for all NC into northern SC on 12z Ukmet,Euro,Canadian suite: These 3 are just dry with qpf: Unlike the Nam and Both GFS. Has to do with handeling at H5. On to the 12z.
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Once again I’d favor the GFS/v16/NAM, typically more amped/NW systems are favored
 
As James has been saying, it would be nice to get a "cold" storm (road sticking). But we deal with what we're handed. So we do have a couple of good things; cold 850s, cold/cool ground temps, and this will be coming in overnight. Maybe we increase the QPF a little and with the cold 850s get a surprise (..just maybe).
 
Sigh this is pain, it’s way to early for this, this sort of system can so easily trend NWCCD713F3-89C5-4F3F-96AE-93DF9046822C.gif
 
FallsLake said:
Maybe this is just the euro adjusting to the GFS. And we're very close with this event, you would think this solution would be favored to a point.
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Yeah but even the v16 which was looking good trended NW, we’ll see but I’m not a fan of this storm, we’re having to thread the needle with a stronger WAR/digging system but at the same time it can screw us
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah but even the v16 which was looking good trended NW, we’ll see but I’m not a fan of this storm, we’re having to thread the needle with a stronger WAR/digging system but at the same time it can screw us
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As we always say, the next model runs will be big (for trends). I also agree (not a fan), this event will definitely be a thread the needle situation. Years back there was a storm that dropped 5" on the Triad when rain was just forecasted. I remember reading that everything lined up just perfect (for the marginal situation) to give them the snow.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah but even the v16 which was looking good trended NW, we’ll see but I’m not a fan of this storm, we’re having to thread the needle with a stronger WAR/digging system but at the same time it can screw us
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Yeah unfortunately this isn't a system with a mega block in place and you get that rare south trend, this has NW trend all over it and classic look of one that will be a mountains/N Va storm real quick.... hope I'm wrong
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah unfortunately this isn't a system with a mega block in place and you get that rare south trend, this has NW trend all over it and classic look of one that will be a mountains/N Va storm real quick.... hope I'm wrong
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Yeah we are fighting the typical marginal system battle here. We've done well when these waves stay weaker and flat I might try to dig up some examples later
 
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