So from what I see, heavy rates could cool us down, but idk.. I am not biting on this right now.
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Wintry February 6th-7th
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
Jessy89
Member
Icon track is great I do think there’s a warm bias. So that looks decent on icon
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Excitement. Lots of excitement.
Saturated profile, strong SW flow from 700mb-500mb over top CAA below that. Check out those laspe rates.
iGRXY
Member
Short range models need to be looked at. We are within 72 hours so globals are getting out of their useful range. RGEM kept most moisture just south of I20
The ICON is bringing a second round of precip that's driven by waa from the northern stream late Saturday and Sunday. The NAM and EMCF is shearing that out for the most part and is focused on the first round of overrunning.
For that swath to work out around the Midlands of SC, it would have to be heavier rates from what I am seeing.. like... 49F with a dew of 23.. idk. idk. idk.. starting to remind me of that ULL from 2014 that caught people off-guard.. but like.. eh
This fgen is nice but good grief NW trend much
3KM is very close to little fatties...
Look at the lift...I like seeing that!!
Jessy89
Member
Gfs is close but a no go. The NAM is also colder then the Gfs
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GFS is very close as well. Not as good as the NAM with the thermals but its an improvement for sure.
This is all the gfs had 
Jessy89
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The NW trend has been activated. Where it stops is the only remaining question.
The new GFS is still delivering the goods for western and central NC
LovingGulfLows
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GFS definitely spreads the moisture further north than NAM. 925s are slightly too warm for the northern parts of the precip shield at hour 75.
Jessy89
Member
The new GFS is still delivering the goods for western and central NC
That new GFS has been locked in on this. And hasn’t budged much! If this model pulls this off it might be up there with the Euro
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GEFS
V16, not much room for anymore NW shifts
Looks about right, I've been betting on this being a GSO storm for a while...
LovingGulfLows
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Lots of spread in the models on where potential snow is going to be. Some have the snow axis far north and some have it far south. I think a previous poster said it best: We need to watch where the front sets up on Friday. That will tell the story.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely. This has the potential to sneak up on anyone from Macon to Columbia all the way up to metro Atlanta through Charlotte.
LovingGulfLows
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Canadian is a miss. Too suppressed with the precip and areas that do get it are simply too warm to get any snow. I wonder why V16 is such an outlier in terms of how far north the precip shield gets. GFS suites are the only models getting precip even up to Atlanta.
Canadian trended further NW
12z
0z
12z
0z
The new GFS has been honking this as a decent hit for central NC for a few runs now with fairly little variance. I think the 00z run was probably the best yet IMBY.
I guess something to note is that like with the last storm, temps will be marginal (if it even happens) and ratios will be crappy, so the clown maps will overstate things. However, soil temps should be better this time around since it’s been fairly chilly recently, and so we may not lose as much to melting, which will help.
But let’s worry about there even being a storm to worry about first!
I guess something to note is that like with the last storm, temps will be marginal (if it even happens) and ratios will be crappy, so the clown maps will overstate things. However, soil temps should be better this time around since it’s been fairly chilly recently, and so we may not lose as much to melting, which will help.
But let’s worry about there even being a storm to worry about first!
That's quite the spread for only 60 hours out.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I'm getting January 2018 vibes
Last edited:
CMCE
Flo
Member
Don’t those contradict each other?
The Doc says im trying. lol it now shows a little dusting from southern MS into MGM area. Show a little blip btwn CSG and MCN (12z run and the 00z run from last night had nothing) So an improvement and a nod more toward the NAM
current euro run
12z run
00z last night...
An improvement and more of a nod toward the NAM
12z run
00z last night...
An improvement and more of a nod toward the NAM
Check out 850's right as precip is moving in. My gut tells me 0c will wind up running a path from charlotte to wake.
It's great to see the LR storms showing up, but we know how easily we can lose them (and get them) as we get closer. So focusing on the short range, the GFS(s) are still showing some snow for this Saturday night. Nothing great, as surface temps will be marginal, but still it's something. From RAH:
After being well offshore with its 12z
run, the 00z ECMWF has shifted back north with the track, bringing
precipitation to all areas in central NC except for the NW Piedmont,
lining up very well with the 00z GFS. In addition, the region will
be in an area of upper divergence in the right entrance region of a
160-kt jet streak, and the high shifting completely offshore will
result in moist SE flow. Thus have POPs ranging from slight in the
far NW to high chance in the SE from Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. With temperatures dropping into the lower-to-mid-
30s, low-level thicknesses appear supportive for the possibility of
some wet snowflakes in at least the NW half of the forecast area.
However, accumulations if any should be very minimal, especially as
this will be where forcing for precipitation is weaker.
6z GFS hr 72 (don't get excited, 2m temps are > 32 for non-mountain folks):
After being well offshore with its 12z
run, the 00z ECMWF has shifted back north with the track, bringing
precipitation to all areas in central NC except for the NW Piedmont,
lining up very well with the 00z GFS. In addition, the region will
be in an area of upper divergence in the right entrance region of a
160-kt jet streak, and the high shifting completely offshore will
result in moist SE flow. Thus have POPs ranging from slight in the
far NW to high chance in the SE from Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. With temperatures dropping into the lower-to-mid-
30s, low-level thicknesses appear supportive for the possibility of
some wet snowflakes in at least the NW half of the forecast area.
However, accumulations if any should be very minimal, especially as
this will be where forcing for precipitation is weaker.
6z GFS hr 72 (don't get excited, 2m temps are > 32 for non-mountain folks):