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Wintry February 6th-7th

I’m trying to figure out what’s going on w such a narrow band when it appears precip shield is much larger. Anyone??
 
Enjoy it midlands. One or two more ticks NW and your out of the game.

Edit: This is an overrunning event...so the precip field going further NW may only mean more people are in the hunt.

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Jessy89 said:
Could it be the cold air has it suppressed?


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Maybe but it looked (if I visualized correctly) as if precip shield extended further N within that NAM run. Maybe I was wrong. It’s just a wierd strip for our area and climatology. Not unheard of but not the norm either.
 
I’ve been saying for two days that this is one to watch. It’s still a marginal looking event, but it looks like it timing could be good and this could let some of us score who haven’t had much the last couple years.
 
With it being marginal. getting this to occur at night would be a big plus. Where ever this does fall. Location will adjust nw or at least it should trend that way fun times ahead


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All the models including ensembles who have seen this storm paint a similar picture but in different locations .. a semi thin stripe that sets up where rates are good and temps are marginal enough .. makes for a good paste event but also makes for a very hard to track storm ... lots of ups and downs with this one I’m sure .. a good appetizer for the King Kong event ?
 
GaSnowhound said:
Yeah I’m struggling to rationalize that thin ltl band of precip w what appeared to be a bit more robust precip shield.
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It's just a matter of the NW edge of precip close enough to coldest thermals for snow, if precip further NW would be a wider swath of snow.
 
It’s definitely rate driven. It looks good right now in the midlands and it may stay that way but everyone along the 85 corridor looks to be in the best location for the inevitable NW trend and precip being more expansive on the north side while being better situated in the cold air
 
Robert West said:
Hard to even take this serious at all. What in the world is happening. Trying to look at the temps for this time frame now.
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I would highly advise you to take a peek at the nam 3k. I think that may have a better handle of this atm
 
Wheres the cold air its showing temps in the 40s 9pm saturday ??
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
All the models including ensembles who have seen this storm paint a similar picture but in different locations .. a semi thin stripe that sets up where rates are good and temps are marginal enough .. makes for a good paste event but also makes for a very hard to track storm ... lots of ups and downs with this one I’m sure .. a good appetizer for the King Kong event
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Side note , King Kong 100 percent has to be the thread name for next weeks storm .


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Check out the trend on the NAM. Trough digging deeper in TX and turning the flow more SW aloft. Ridge trending stronger on the west coast. While different, the trend is definitely the same as what happened in the Dec 17 storm.
 

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metwannabe said:
If this works out gonna have to really start looking at the new GFS more, it picked it up first I believe. Would be another score
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It did and then they had it offline till 12z today. So who knows what it was seeing all along past couple days. It cant be worse than what its replacing.
 
GaSnowhound said:
I’m trying to figure out what’s going on w such a narrow band when it appears precip shield is much larger. Anyone??
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Well, it was only the northwest periphery of the precipitation field that was snow. The precip field itself was much more expansive to the south and east.

And thanks for starting this thread! It was getting confusing with the D10 threat and this one being in the same thread!
 
Loganelliott99 said:
From previous experience i thought the 3k nam had better thermals?
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Yeah I'm fairly certain @57 it wasn't showing snow with the last system. It maybe right but I'm looking at v16, ensembles and NAM just starting to latch on...trends not bad.
 
Flo said:
How does this go from out of nowhere to this and it’s 3 days away?
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The storm itself has been there for a while. People just wanted to look at the D10 shiny object, I guess, haha. However, this is the first run of any model I’ve seen that’s showed snow for CAE, MCN, etc. Most other modeling has confined potential snow to portions of NC.
 
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