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Wintry February 6th-7th

Myfrotho704_ said:
For example, i waste this sort of sounding in the 3km with being dry for 3 hours before the warm nose takes over.. need heavy precip View attachment 72071
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Ultimately it’s going to come down to rates at certain times with this. Really the only difference between the HRRR and 3kNAM is the HRRR want to bring in the best forcing several hours sooner while 850s are really cold and the heavy precip crashes the column to give several hours of heavy snow. The soundings for my area in Union county are really close to yours... if this trends in the direction of the HRRR I’d probably be looking at a wet snow/sleet mix and if it’s in the direction of the NAM light rain/drizzle
 
Chazwin said:
Ultimately it’s going to come down to rates at certain times with this. Really the only difference between the HRRR and 3kNAM is the HRRR want to bring in the best forcing several hours sooner while 850s are really cold and the heavy precip crashes the column to give several hours of heavy snow. The soundings for my area in Union county are really close to yours... if this trends in the direction of the HRRR I’d probably be looking at a wet snow/sleet mix and if it’s in the direction of the NAM light rain/drizzle
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Well the good news is these events love to come in hours earlier than progged so maybe that will be the saving grace up there.
 
I know a lot of it isn’t reaching the ground, but it seems like the HRRR is underestimating the extent of precip at initialization. Don’t know if that’s going to mean anything of course
 
Maggie valley still looking good thought? I have my own thoughts still leaning towards 2-4 there. Unless the hrrrr and rap is right then it be a bust. What’s everybody else think there?


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LovingGulfLows said:
Well the good news is these events love to come in hours earlier than progged so maybe that will be the saving grace up there.
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Which is why I don’t completely dismiss what the HRRR is showing though I do think it’s totals are unrealistic. Looking back at the 3/13/2017 event, even though it was a different setup it did come from a strong frontogentic band, the HRRR was the first to pick up on the impressive rates that areas of the southern and eastern portion of the CLT metro had with that... 2-3 inches in a couple hours.... oddly enough the antecedent conditions today are very similar to the day before that system
 
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