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Wintry February 6th-7th

NCSNOW said:
It was high up there in the air yesterday instead of its normal elevation. Is that still the case today?
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Looks like it’s 725-775 mb there, so pretty high. Much higher than 850 mb. Not particularly atypical around here, though.
 
NCSNOW said:
It was high up there in the air yesterday instead of its normal elevation. Is that still the case today?
Click to expand...
Yeah it was around 700mb on the NAM, but a little lower on the 3k. But the layer just below remains very cold.
 
850's a litle colder again this run near me...but maybe some sleet pellets at the beginning?
 
Could really really hope that Warm Nose is not as intrusive but we've seen it plenty of times
 
Clem282340 said:
Are there anyway to overcome this warm nose
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It was looking great at 6z. But 12z Nam suite and cam models off the wrf family are advertising the hated warm nose now. A deeper south and more easterly track of our low as it exits into the big pond would be about the only hope. This would have to be predicated by the frontal boundary pushing futher south tonight. As the lp forms along the front and rides it out to sea.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Most, if not all, weather forecast apps are commonly known as "crap apps" as far as forecasts beyond 2 or 3 days. I believe they are generated by deterministic model output, which as we know, is highly unreliable beyond 3-5 days. I think some of these apps blend historic climatology into their products beyond day 7 so it's really off most of the time from reality. Just stick around here and these nerds will figure it out for you. :p
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Thank you for that! I’ve been sticking around and plan to continue sticking around and learning the best I can! I was just really confused because some days weather apps show its going to be warm and when you walk outside it’s the opposite! Then I pop on this morning and see we are on the border but in the blue on most models so I check the apps getting ready to send my hubby a pic since he has plans of going riding at the ATV park and of course I see it’s going to be low/mid 50’s with rain during the day and 33-34 at night with rain and a slight chance of wintery mix. The past few “storms” we haven’t had accumulations other than the last storm that was a coating on the porch and gone in the blink of an eye! We’ve seen flurries and sleet mixed for 5-10 mins each time and then nada!


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We can't have nice things.... Models looked like they were going well for more parts of the SE and just a little bit later its backing off all this within 30 hours of the event starting.
 
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