GEFS extended wasnt bad either last night. By far its snowiest run of the entire winter.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GEFS extended wasnt bad either last night. By far its snowiest run of the entire winter.
Pretty significant movement on the midterm storm on the GEFS with now 6/30 members showing snow. At 0z, I believe it was one.
ATLwxfan
Member
The main lobe of SSWE headed to Asia so there won’t be much cold on this side of the hemisphere unfortunately.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Way better run this morning from the GFS. General setup still intact. WNC pattern absolutely loaded
Several members showing mixed precipitation on top of that as well, pretty active 06z run, in that timeframe of interest
Yet the GEFS, CMCE, EPS, and GEPS all show plenty of cold air available in Canada
Pretty remarkable that the GFS had a big WNC/MA snowstorm at 06z looking like this…warning shots? Possibilities will always be there when you get a big sprawling HP in the mix 
Bring that HP down into New York and we will be cooking with gas
Some big HP on the gefs members 
lol i mean it's not like the core of the other lobe has temps in the 80s and dews in the 60s that's not a death knell
RoddyPiper
Member
Signal still there!
packfan98
Moderator
I'm a little surprised about the 13-14th system coming back south. I don't think it will get to my backyard, but the mountains and Virginia could score. At least we will be in a pattern with the potential to produce.
griteater
Member
Good news is that we have ensemble agreement at the moment on a surface low in the NE Gulf via a southern stream wave that is tracking from S Baja to S TX (that's a money track that could yield copious moisture during a strong El Nino) / high pressure across C Canada into the Great Lakes / solid 5050 low in & off the Canadian Maritimes that is holding high pressure to the west. It's a solid setup.
Question is - can we get more cold air for more folks on the board? The "more cold air" equation would likely come in the form of a stronger Greenland Block / 5050 low couplet and/or anticyclonic wave breaking in NW Canada within the western ridge there.
On to the 12Z's. This is 11 days away at this point
Question is - can we get more cold air for more folks on the board? The "more cold air" equation would likely come in the form of a stronger Greenland Block / 5050 low couplet and/or anticyclonic wave breaking in NW Canada within the western ridge there.
On to the 12Z's. This is 11 days away at this point
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10 Years Ago.. This storm trended colder and lead to major ice storm across Midlands of SC. Cae special
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griteater
Member
It's a fair point in the sense that it doesn't look like we are going to have a big Arctic outbreak (Alaskan Ridge pattern regime). Those can work out for snow as seen in the Mid South last month, but what we are shooting for this time around is this Arctic High pattern regime (-AO/-NAO) in conjuction with El Nino. This Arctic High regime is much more likely to occur when the SPV is in a weakened state...the stratosphere evolution is a key player here, and it continues to trend favorably. The big Alaskan Ridge regime with big Arctic outbreak would deliver cold air, but it would wreck our -NAO as Fro has mentioned before because it leads to strong high pressure dropping down east of the Rockies, then +N American Mtn Torq > N Atlantic jet speeds up and breaks down the blocking on the Atlantic side.
So we're in good position where we are....we just need to hit a little better on the details to drive a little more cold air south and time it with our southern stream waves
EPS and ICON havent moved south with the midterm event nearly as much as GEFS so I'd go with them for the moment.
Is the midterm event the ~VD storm or the ~PD storm?
Valentines/Ash Wednesday event yes
It’s the Valentines Day system. In fairness, I’m not certain that we want it to trend south much. One of the keys for the 17th-20th time period is getting a good 50/50 low established underneath that -NAO block. The EPS, CMCE, EURO, CMC, and ICON are all showing the Valentines Day system doing that.