Pattern February 2024

[ILMRoss]

Are you seeing something that lends to it moving flatter?

i was half joking, but i've never been a fan of the "ULL rolls in and creates a wound-up, tight LLC on the coast" flavor of fantasy storms. They don't have a lot of run to run durability and i generally think of them as paper tigers. i would consider the preceding overrunning event (too warm this run) to yield a lot more potential because of how much more realistic it is. to use basketball terminology it is a higher percentage shot.

 

[Brent]

This would be something after the way this winter has gone here that's for sure

 

[Mitch West]

This would be something after the way this winter has gone here that's for sure View attachment 145721

Seems like this is trending better and better for you all. Seems like two days ago this wasn't really that big of a deal. Trending in the right direction at the right timeframe! Pulling for yall!

 

[Stormsfury]

i was half joking, but i've never been a fan of the "ULL rolls in and creates a wound-up, tight LLC on the coast" flavor of fantasy storms. They don't have a lot of run to run durability and i generally think of them as paper tigers. i would consider the preceding overrunning event (too warm this run) to yield a lot more potential because of how much more realistic it is. to use basketball terminology it is a higher percentage shot.

From a meteorological standpoint, these situations hardly work, even when the prevailing seasonal trends have had a series of bombing lows throughout the winter.

From a purely Murphys Law standpoint, I'm slated to go to Greenville, SC to see Disturbed on Feb 20th, so with my luck, this feels like the one time something like this will work in favor for a big winter storm on the very one day I don't want it to happen.

 

[Arcc]

Through 156hrs the Euro is way more like the CMC/ICON. The GFS is still completely alone with the big low off the NW and it’s not really close.

Edit: then again by 168hrs they are now much closer on the west, far apart in the east.

 

[BullCityWx]

euro tried to give NC some clipper snow

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Who y’all got?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Black hole feeder. #FlowJam

Now where’s my HP?

 

[Arcc]

The question is can we hold it there. Wow.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I'm not a fan of this 24-hour change. Just an OP doing what OPs do and all those caveats.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Black hole good but not seeing a lot of high pressure behind it. We’ll see where it goes

 

[SD]

The shortwave over IA is going to refresh the cold on the euro as long as it beats the southern wave the euro should look good at D10

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Uh oh

 

[Mitch West]

Goodness....

 

[coldfront22]

Good or Bad Uh Oh?

 

[Arcc]

Don’t think it’s gonna work for us in the west.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Good or Bad Uh Oh?

I don’t like that change out west regardless where this ends up. But I’m nitpicking a long range (sort of?) model run

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

That's not a split. That's a divorce.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

HP finger of God was stepping in to save us at the end. We good.. ?