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Pattern February 2024

Chazwin said:
Ok this one isn’t like a model differing from its ensemble on one individual storm. This is a major overhauling difference in the overall pattern, but we have some folks that are just going to take it as gospel
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I initially posted it. Of course, I don't take it as gospel, nor any 7+ day run of any model for that matter.

But, seeing a deterministic model go so far off the rails beginning on day 5 shouldn't be completely ignored. Strangely, the 18Z GFS run was eerily similar to yesterday's 18Z run.

If we can admire a great look on a long-range deterministic run, we can handle seeing a train wreck too.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I initially posted it. Of course, I don't take it as gospel, nor any 7+ day run of any model for that matter.

But, seeing a deterministic model go so far off the rails beginning on day 5 shouldn't be completely ignored. Strangely, the 18Z GFS run was eerily similar to yesterday's 18Z run.

If we can admire a great look on a long-range deterministic run, we can handle seeing a train wreck too.
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I guess for me, I just don’t spend much time looking at an op run no matter what solution it shows, good or bad, especially when it goes back and forth. Now if you start to see 3 or 4 runs in a row, showing the same or something similar, then yeah I’ll pay it a little bit of attention, but there’s gotta be some consistency first

Edit: Oh and I read enough of your posts to know you weren’t taking it as gospel. Your input is very useful. I was speaking more of a few posts on the support thread
 
Gefs evolution. Can see the 17-20th chance, then the evolution closer to a El Niño February phase 8 MJO look, GOAK low retrograding and heights recovering out the in NW, with the -NAO retrograding to Baffin Bay and the Atlantic getting clogged up. The constant southern stream barrage encourages cyclonic wavebreaking which keeps the -NAO going healthy. the 17-20th time of interest is just the tip of the iceberg632FBF1B-4E18-431B-AD8A-7125659B71B2.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs evolution. Can see the 17-20th chance, then the evolution closer to a El Niño February phase 8 MJO look, GOAK low retrograding and heights recovering out the in NW, with the -NAO retrograding to Baffin Bay and the Atlantic getting clogged up. The constant southern stream barrage encourages cyclonic wavebreaking which keeps the -NAO going healthy. the 17-20th time of interest is just the tip of the icebergView attachment 145640
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The evolution of the Aleutian low was where the operational completely went off the rails. Which is a feature we’re going to need. GEFS showing it so not sweating it
 
Chazwin said:
So I like where the 0z ICON ended. The storm that cuts up west of the Apps for Valentines moves off and establishes a 50/50 low while the ridge builds in the west. A 1043 HP drops into Montana while a 1042HP is moving down behind it.
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Yep. The ICON looks delicious. Oh, and nothing like the 18Z GFS, lol.
icon_z500_vort_us_58.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png
 
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