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Pattern February 2024

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS just has different plans with that low out in the pacific. Wants to crash it into the west coast which totally wrecks the pattern. It’s wrong I think. Maybe..View attachment 145674
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It phases the initial dump into the NW US into the pac trough, totally wrecks the pattern
 
So much to like on this Canadian run:

1) Parade of low latitude southern stream waves coming into Cali / Baja (we could actually use a touch more spacing between them so that they don't lead to wave dampening, but it's what you get sometimes with a Strong El Nino)
2) Beautiful ridge breaking anti-cyclonically there in NW Canada / AK (which I doubted would happen in that write-up last night) - with multiple shortwaves digging into and past the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low which is getting trapped underneath the developing Greenland Block
3) Potential for wave phasing between northern and southern stream
4) Cold surface high pressures (multiple) dropping down into the CONUS
5) Suppressed storm track across the south

Just put this on loop and let it repeat like a computer program, and we'd be looking to buy snow blowers on Amazon

CmYV166.gif
 
Definitely some much warmer members in the 0z GEFS run.

Edit: pretty clear what is happening. Northern stream not as deep, so some of the members are picking up big phasers. Some in the GOM and some in the Midwest/SE. Unfortunately the OP did get some support from some of its members this run.
 
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Mitch West said:
Euro nods to the GFS with the lack of cold push during our timeframe of interest. Sucks if we get to where we only have the Canadian, which it feels like we already have. Man we aren’t good at Winter.
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The EURO still had the same general pattern as the CMC though so I wouldn’t say it was a nod to the GFS. It more had some timing differences from the CMC which is to be expected at 240
hours. I didn’t see anything on the EURO or EPS that would make me give the op GFS anymore validity than at 18z
 
Looks like a pattern that’s favorable for cold air damming to me, exiting SE can vortex/50/50 low and trailing + heights around the lakes encourages HP up top. Can already see a wedge signal via the bending of 850mb temps east of the apps, which is impressive for a day 10-11 smoothed out mean. It may or may not go away, but it’s a favorable pattern that could pop something up. F0C45D51-04B6-405B-A94F-4DBEE98195CA.png4EAE97F6-3499-4150-96A3-F93CE7FB478A.pngEA1ED0C2-E76E-49F1-BAE8-E77B30375571.png9D491C36-4D28-46C0-AEC3-F4CB753B4DC9.png
 
KyloG said:
This day 5 deal is trending south. Brings VA into the game.

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You say that it brings VA into the game which is cool but cold air is an issue with this system. Would be a rain to sloppy snow system if things trended slightly better for us.
 
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