NCSNOW
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I count 16 out of 30. Lot of big boys. Thanks for posting
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I'd like to see more smaller hits in the mix I learned the hard way with the last storm.
Yeah I count 13 of 30 for mby if you include the miss to south. Be nice to keep this look up on the 6z and 12z
rburrel2
Member
Can't complain about how the Brad P. storm is looking this morning. All 3 major ensemble groups are over a 1 inch mean for CAD areas(even columbia has a 1 inch mean on all three!) from snow falling in the 270-360hr timeframe. That's about as solid of a signal as you can hope for that far out. In fact, I'm not sure how far back you'd have to go to find a run cycle where all 3 major ensembles featured over an inch snow mean for the same time period. I think several years.
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rburrel2
Member
Looking at the operational CMC/EURO at 240hr it looks like suppression with the first wave will be our biggest enemy with plenty of cold air around. So I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS showing back to back runs with the less cold/amped up solution.
Yeah this a good look right here, with these low amp southern stream waves there’s no true piece of energy but rather waves of energy, could be more then 1 bout of overrunning precipitation 
RoddyPiper
Member
No doubt some of the best in regards to amounts....but CAD alone doesn't normally result in snow....you need another cold source, especially at the 850mb level. Not saying it can't work, its just not ideal for the Southeast....a lot better for those in the MA.
Maybe for northern GA, but here in the Carolina Piedmont and I’m sure the SC upstate crowd would agree, I always prefer CAD above anything else to get a good push. The reason being is that we don’t have to worry about the cold air getting delayed coming over the mountains. Keep in mind and Webb has pointed this out a number of times, for the western half of the NC Piedmont, the Foothills, and the SC upstate miller B storms on average produce the most snowfall. The reason being is that they are set up by strong CAD.
NC has gotten its biggest snows from cold air damming setups, it’s often the way to score east of the apps
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’d much rather have a weak wave moving into a cad setup compared to a wound up monster trying to move in tandem with a high
RoddyPiper
Member
Again, im not saying that it wont work....when it does, its often big events, but 99% of the time, there is a cold air source outside of CAD that aids in the upper levels. Its often hard to score east of the Apps without CAD due to the cold air pooling that happens to the NW.
Hard to score without it, hard to score with it alone.....that's all I'm saying.
Can we debate CAD in the banter thread and keep the "a few degrees below average will not work" that's been said ad nauseum, in there too? Thanks
This thread is for pattern/storm discussion
This thread is for pattern/storm discussion
I understand a big chunk of that is coming next Sunday/Monday in rain so hope not too skewed for the longer period.
Hopefully it can stay on a cycle and we get the 12-13....19-20...and then a 3rd shot at 25-27th
it's tough man
in 2020 that's a honking signal, but it's tough to wash out the last couple of years. i distinctly still remember the 6+ ensemble means in feb 2021 (i think those existed) and i feel like i've had a few building signals wash out over the last few years. so it's tough to give a signal like this the typical respect it deserves.
there's probably some fallacy embedded here. this doesn't speak to the accuracy of the models, moreso that i think we've just gotten really unlucky. the people that at ncep/ec that work on these things are beyond brilliant mets and mathematicians and i generally don't tolerate "the models aren't what they used to be" type rhetoric.
if monday's storm is an interior NE bomb then that will help grease the skids. snow cover isn't everything but it helps
edit- anything on the 12-13 at least has good mojo. i did not wax poetic in that reminiscing thread but but my favorite event of all time is feb 12-13 2010. core memory is getting home from violin lessons (lol) and opening a taco bell chalupa and turning on weather channel to see wilmington was under a winter storm watch... my first *ever*. big fan of anything that can get going
Same here. One thing you can count on is the daytime temp forecast always goes down if it's frozen and within 5 days.
Pretty good northward jump on that Feb 14 snow footprint
Sorry for the lay question--Referring to the suppression or the gfs run that was already in Va?