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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
This look from last nights EPS is close to the Miller B winter storm composite for NC, big 50/50 low, the area around the lakes is clean from any big TPV lobe with some ridging near the lakes which encourages descent —> high pressure , and a low amplitude southern stream wave/baggy trough progressing east, want to see this look show up more and more, and keep clean of anything around the lakes View attachment 145558
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cold trough lobe'ing a little too far east into N. Atlantic as opposed to more nw/se across conus?
 
CaryWx said:
cold trough lobe'ing a little too far east into N. Atlantic as opposed to more nw/se across conus?
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No, that look is fine, if that was over the east we’d be completely dry and suppressed. 50/50 low is typical in winter storms of the past for the Carolina’s and mid Atlantic. It’s actually better to me being around that area, because it encourages high pressure trailing
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_59.png

gfs_z500_vort_eus_60.png

Just cruel...
 
I know nobody is going to want to hear this...pattern isn't great day 12+ on the GEPS. The pacific isn't cooperating here.

Yes it can change and I'm sure it's wrong and it's day 10+ which isn't great skill.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-mslp_anom-8387200.png
 
JLL1973 said:
going to get very interesting around here during that time period
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Yea...we are looking good to score again if we can get that HP coming down from the plains....our chances continue to increase with the subtle changes in the globals.
 
CMCE/GEFS look a little worse for the day 11-13 threat, but there continues to be noise out to the very end of the runs. Hard to imagine we don't bump in to something before the end of February. Also a good many ice storms showing up on the GEFS in the 324-384hr timeframe.
 
Like Fro said earlier, there maybe more than one wave coming through the STJ that we could possibly score from, the tricky part is timing one of the waves with the HP's coming through the NS. Presidents day week has some potential IMO.

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Ugh. don't like this change on the Euro for Feb 22
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Looking like it wants to significantly weaken the block in Greenland, not good. If it shows this for a couple of runs more, it will change how good/less good the pattern becomes. The trough in the Pac moves closer to the East and so does the one in the Atl, hopefully this is just a blip and not a trend
 
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