light Ip in south concord, all sleet btw
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
So unless it turns to all rain then Brad P and the models showing raining for the first several hours will bust and could see a little sleet accum and maybe faster transition to snow mix.
Avalanche
Member
Dry air has def entrenched
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last several runs of the HRRR on weathernerds.org are significantly speeding up the changeover to snow in Charlotte-Fayetteville. Might be headed to Fayetteville for this after all. Need a few more runs to be 100% sure.
Sitting at 39 at canton Georgia with a dew point at 37 with a northeast wind. Man it’s gonna be close?
iGRXY
Member
HRRR on weathernerds has the column crashing within the next hour for the upstate so be patient.
Pretty close to our high for today, 43.7/33.8, with a light NNE wind. That will verify about 4 degrees lower than the most recent HRRR run and in line with the NAM. Somewhat concerned we don't mix out the last couple thousand feet later today and tonight, melting is a self limiting process but CAA never really gets going at the surface until the tail end.
Few pingers here, just started, mixed with -RN.
Few pingers here, just started, mixed with -RN.
Latest HRRR is stuck on Hr 3 but it looks like it could be showing a change over faster (maybe).
RDU dew point down to 27!!!
RDU dew point down to 27!!!
iGRXY
Member
Even where the radar says a mix, the soundings show snow which is really good to see.
Downeastnc
Member
sleet mixing in here already as well, once good rates develop I suspect it will be more IP/SN than rain even with surface temps in the mid to upper 30's, if we an get those to crash then this overperforms I think....
hrrr on weathernerds really crashes that column quick across much of NC
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I guess it's coming even faster than thought. The CAD is breaking the 925 down to freezing as we speak across N GA, so that layer is almost done. 850s crashing almost vertically it appears in N GA.
Cadi40
Member
I think it may take a little longer to change over to snow for area, but it also looks like the precipitation will hang around longer into the night than previously forecasted.
The 10z HRRR showed the dewpoint above freezing for RDU for 15z. It was about 5-7°F too warm.
I saw an MPing just north of the TN border reporting snow about 30 minutes ago. The traffic cameras in Huntsville show it is coming down good there too.
Snownut
Member
I could see the upstate north of 85 being changed over within a couple hours. Still just rain here though
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
? ? ? ?
To add to an earlier post, here's an animation showing that the HRRR is definitely speeding up the changeover to snow for folks south of the Triangle area. This is like music to the ears of snow lovers in Charlotte, Fayetteville, & Goldsboro, etc. Also starting to increase the potential of snow for parts of the upstate of SC as well.
To add to an earlier post, here's an animation showing that the HRRR is definitely speeding up the changeover to snow for folks south of the Triangle area. This is like music to the ears of snow lovers in Charlotte, Fayetteville, & Goldsboro, etc. Also starting to increase the potential of snow for parts of the upstate of SC as well.
WXinCanton
Member
This aint our storm, be happy we scored a couple weeks ago. Pulling for our NC peeps!
I understand it’s time to look out the window, but for those in the upstate that’s that the run you wanted from the NAM just before an event rolls through, I’m not sure what the issue was there. Maybe @Myfrotho704_ can explain that a little better.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RGEM just went HAM.
MichaelJ
Member
Currently it is 37/25 here BUT only 60% humidity. Going to be a while before we can saturate the upper levels with the dry air and see something fall besides flurries. Triad West will lose a lof of this to Virga even though the radar may show precip falling
Shaggy
Member
46 degrees with a 50/50 rn/ip mix. Crazy
Surface layer has to be very thin, which is really good news.
Nerman
Member
The 12z HRW NMMB increase snow totals for the Raleigh area eastward (But I don't know verification scores for this model):
Clay
Member
Moderate wet snow in the Nashville area. Sticking to elevated surfaces.
Fountainguy97
Member
Finally starting to saturate fully. Rates picking up but still small flakes here.
guys further west are posting halfdollar flakes pouring from the sky. That stuff over TN is looking JUICY.
guys further west are posting halfdollar flakes pouring from the sky. That stuff over TN is looking JUICY.
iGRXY
Member
The column has collapsed in the northern upstate so the changeover should not take very long now.
Do you have this visually so the newbies can see and learn from it?
Brad P mentioned that the changeover may be delayed but it looks like the snow will last longer than he previously thought.. interesting trends right now. I mean, if you look back to the West, we still have a lot of moisture to flow through.
BTW, that HRRR was a very interesting run.
BTW, that HRRR was a very interesting run.
iGRXY
Member
This is the most up to date mesoscale sounding and the upstate is below freezing all the way down the column to nearly the surface with DP around 30 in the northern upstate.
Temp has been stuck at 42 since i got up dewpoint has trickled down to 29
Yeah. 39 in Clayton rain snow mix (more rain but still see some flakes)
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ChattaVOL
Member
840/65 Intersection in Middle Tennessee
thats why i do think we can get a few flurries tonight