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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

The problem for the upstate is it will take time to change over. I’ve seen it time and time again. Only place that gets over 2inches is nc/sc border areas


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Jessy89 said:
The problem for the upstate is it will take time to change over. I’ve seen it time and time again. Only place that gets over 2inches is nc/sc border areas


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Click to expand...
It’s not going to take as long as you think or the models are saying. Just wait. Rain/snow line will be around abbeville/greenwood.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

GAZ006>009-013>016-201000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.200220T1000Z-200221T0600Z/
Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
Including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland
200 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixture of rain and freezing rain transitioning to snow
and rain and finally to all snow. Total ice accumulations up to
a tenth of an inch. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch
except up to two inches in the highest elevations.

* WHERE...Northeast and portions of north central Georgia. The
most hazardous conditions will be at the higher elevations.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Freezing
rain followed by snow can create especially hazardous driving
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Click to expand...
WWA in effect for parts of N GA.
SPS in effect for the rest of N GA.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 217 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 GAZ001>005-011-012-201000- Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Chattooga-Gordon- 217 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 ...Wintry Mix Possible Thursday Mainly Higher Elevations... An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the Gulf Coast and track offshore the Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon. This will allow rain initially to develop across the area by Thursday morning. But as colder air filters into the area between 10am and noon, a transition to a mixture of rain and snow is possible. During the afternoon hours, this mixture could briefly change to all snow before quickly ending by mid afternoon. Accumulations are expected to remain limited with generally a half inch or less, except up to an inch at the highest elevations of Dade and Walker counties. Also of concern is the fact that temperatures will drop very quickly Thursday night into Friday morning. Any moisture that remains on the roadways during this timeframe will result in black ice which could create additional hazardous driving conditions. $$ Deese
Click to expand...
 
EV_WS said:
What's the concern? TIA
Click to expand...

It would be much better to see 700mb frontogenesis/WAA over us, 850mb frontogenesis/WAA is a bit more risky, mostly the WAA part, that’s why that warm nose is appearing because of that WAA at/right above 850mb, still frontogenesis at 850mb can produce big rates
 
metwannabe said:
Rah goes with Advisory for now...
Click to expand...
I agree with it starting as rain and that’s not good as qpf thins further north and west. Advisory makes sense until transition becomes more clear IMO
 
Last edited:
metwannabe said:
Rah goes with Advisory for now...
Click to expand...
I had many a storm in GSO where they put out WWAs 24 hours before and didn't upgrade to a WSW until the morning of the event (or later). Ex: March 2009, December 2010, etc.

I tend to think we hit warning criteria here, and certainly so further east (2-4" would fit that bill).
 
That transition zone keep creeping N.
ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
That transition line in upstate SC is likely to run about 15 miles North of I85. If you below that, well look for sleet and rain. Above that line you see up to 2" of snow
 
Poimen said:
Of course, being just N of that transition zone can be a blessing. All-in-all, the NAM is remaining steady.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
this is 4pm rain now line just barely into the upstate. so unless the nam is wrong and its probably not. i look to see 3-4hrs of snow and thats about it dusting to 2 inches but closer to sc nc border 2-4 inches
 
One thing seems certain, once the warm nose stops moving northward, temps crash hard and drives it back south real quick.... still time for those that mix to change back over to a decent thump on top of some sleet
 
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