packfan98
Moderator
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Yeah, this run ain't gonna be weak.
We've got a couple of competing influences and changes here, the net net will probably be a small bump north in the warm nose but nothing crazy.
NAM coming in hot, literally, I think
warm nose stronger on the nam out to hr 30
BHS1975
Member
You knew it was going to happen. That’s why I never told my wife about this. She has no idea about what could happen Thursday. I’ve kept my mouth shut.
? 
850mb front is south of 6z but we've introduced more SE flow at 850, again net net may end up with not much change
sleetfest for rdu on the instant maps, rain for clt. upstate trying to change over to snow tomorrow at 4pm.
yikes.
Storm5
Member
Trends are great for Tenn
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fountainguy97
Member
Trends are great for Tenn
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Getting that overrunning increase. also the low in the gulf is stronger. more precip west of the Apps but more warm nose east.
packfan98
Moderator
Lots more precip. A real qpf bomb. It's going to be a lot of something...
yeah for those of us along the change over line or hoping for a change over its not what you want to see. The obvious move with the NAM here is more amplification than warm nosing northward, obviously the 2 or connected in some way but we got more amp than north of the warm nose (if that makes sense). That'll be something to watch with the rest of the 12z models, if everything else stays flatter, you have to think the NAM have be slightly too far north
Big jump north in NC with the sleet..
SnowNiner
Member
This is the time we stop rooting for the NAM, and blowing it off as an outlier. SREF it is then. Go SREF!
We sure could use some CAD couldn't we?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks to me like some mix Raleigh southward, then changing to mostly snow. That snow on top of sleet can be fun.
At hour 30 the sleet line gets right up to RDU. Afterwards it slowly retreats south and eastward. I would personally like this to hold **got to smell the rain/sleet to get the biggest totals.
Snownut
Member
The totals on thec12z NAM Went up for the upstate. 3-5" is it just me or does that seem high?
Still looking good for RDU and the Triad. Although sleet is dangerously close to me.
If you’re looking at TT maps they are garbage. That wasn’t a good run for the upstate
The tropical tidbits maps, from my understanding, are taking the mixed sleet/snow/slop and counting it as 10:1 snowfall. They are very overdone in regards to snowfall maps here in the South.
Well now I’m looking at Ollie’s post and it looks good...idk..I didn’t love that juiced up solution for upstate SC
Yeah man, we've done well the last few years (...being on the line). This run would give our area (north Wake) some of the largest totals for the area.
Snownut
Member
Which are the better ones to use
The maps posted above, from weathermodels or weatherbell. Pivotal are okay too.
Let me put it this way. that run of the nam put 9 inches in my back yard via TT maps. I wouldn't even see a real snowflake.
I hear a lot of talk about the Wake county gradient...but Greenville SC will give you a run for your money
