iGrey_X
Member
Just the algorithms. Best thing to do is pay attention to the soundings and know about certain basis’s that each one has especially from a temperature standpoint.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
What time are you speaking of? I see that at 9:00am, which is about the start of the precip in the upstate, that the layer between 750-850 is too warm and the air is saturated already.
I just want to note that the HRRR did not handle my area well, at all, with our 5 to 6" event a couple of weeks ago. It was spitting out putrid amounts of snow 30 minutes before my yard was covered. Different set up but just throwing it out there.
BackThePack
Member
IMO, there is going to be a battle for the rain to snow transition. Areas north of 64 see snow first, but areas south of 64 see more QPF. That 64 corridor still feels like it will have the best balance of the two. That puts Raleigh in an interesting spot. At what point does the precip turn frozen to fluff and how much QPF will be left (how fast is it moving, will Wake cash in on any deform)
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Per RAH, the NAM is initializing too cold, thus they are pretty much discounting its solution. I can certainly see how this is a problem. Hopefully we get even better agreement in the modeling today.
NWS GSP continues to be unimpressed for my area. Just a 30% rn/sn mix for Thu night.
Both SREF’s
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
That looks like a significant increase for the Triad at least
Fountainguy97
Member
I don’t get this argument form them. The HRRR and NAM are pretty much identical on temps at hr 18.
Sounds like an excuse to not up totals right now.
ajr
Member
ajr
Member
6z EPS
00z
00z
Jon
Member
Looks like you're also at elevation so that helps over-perform a bit, but yeah, it missed bad.
I'm working in N. Charleston currently and must drive home to Wilson, NC straight up 95 beginning around 10am Friday. Is there anyone that can offer any insight on expected road conditions on the interstate headed north on Friday? It's a 4 hour drive from where I am in Charleston, and I HAVE to be home by 3 pm Friday. Any insight is greatly appreciated!!!
TN sure, only NW tip of AL, if that, most likely.North Al/TN still looks decent.
06z EPS is even better for thr Triad
Control
Control
Wakefield’s discussion this morning. Pertinent info only.
Given the trends of bringing the pcpn shield farther north with each model run, snow totals with this forecast package will range from
arnd 1 inch in the RIC-PTB metro areas east towards MVF, a 1-2 inch swath farther se towards the middle Peninsula to FKN-AVC with 2-3
inches in areas away from the water across Hampton Roads/nern NC. These values are still in a winter wx advsry headline if they hold, but watches may be needed if amounts tick up in later model runs.
Given the trends of bringing the pcpn shield farther north with each model run, snow totals with this forecast package will range from
arnd 1 inch in the RIC-PTB metro areas east towards MVF, a 1-2 inch swath farther se towards the middle Peninsula to FKN-AVC with 2-3
inches in areas away from the water across Hampton Roads/nern NC. These values are still in a winter wx advsry headline if they hold, but watches may be needed if amounts tick up in later model runs.
We see your reports, and honestly, some of it is petty and overdone. (There's been a lot the last couple of days). Play nice, please. With that said..
Sometime between/after now and 00z tonight, we will be removing posts that clutter up this discussion thread. Staff off-topic posts included. We will not be trying to move them throughout different threads. We will press the delete button because first, it's easier, secondly, the amount of posts will be out of control.
Observations of the event go here, instead of making a separate thread. We chose this method because people barely use the correct threads anyway, and we'd not enjoy merging all the observations into this thread later.
Complaints about the storm, how your weight scale just broke, or how many birds spoke to you today, go here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-whamby-2020-a-new-decade.669/page-215#post-246759
Call maps, oddly, go here because Jimmy wanted to make a thread for it: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/february-20-21-jimmy-deluxe-call-maps.688/#post-246760
Sometime between/after now and 00z tonight, we will be removing posts that clutter up this discussion thread. Staff off-topic posts included. We will not be trying to move them throughout different threads. We will press the delete button because first, it's easier, secondly, the amount of posts will be out of control.
Observations of the event go here, instead of making a separate thread. We chose this method because people barely use the correct threads anyway, and we'd not enjoy merging all the observations into this thread later.
Complaints about the storm, how your weight scale just broke, or how many birds spoke to you today, go here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/winter-whamby-2020-a-new-decade.669/page-215#post-246759
Call maps, oddly, go here because Jimmy wanted to make a thread for it: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/february-20-21-jimmy-deluxe-call-maps.688/#post-246760
Wow, the SREFs are going hammer time, especially in the run that came out. I don’t put much stock in them, but it never hurts to have more guidance onboard for warning criteria snowfall.
going to be heartbreaking here in clt i believe. warm nose will be just too tough to overcome and we will waste a ton of qpf on rain. changeover around 4pm or so but then the bulk of the precip will be gone. will be shocked to see more than a dusting at best. warm nose strikes again, brutal.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The short range models look to be coming into agreement and showing very similar solutions. I think it is just hard to disregard the consistency with them.
iGRXY
Member
SREF is usually a good presumption to how the NAM will possibly look. So the NAM may look even better or colder here in a few minutes.
Its nice to see the SREFs are probably not as far north as the NAM. Maybe just maybe one time the warm nose is slightly overdone?
I’m sorry this is a little silly .. Charlotte will get their fair share easily 2-3 inches I would say with that wrap around moisture and if the warm nose isn’t as strong as modeled or rates are higher than expected( usually happens) then I could see those numbers easily going up for that area
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i have seen the nam show warm noses time and time again for winter storms and 99.99% of the time it is never overdone. will not be near enough qpf to put down 1-2" much less 2-3 after the warm nose erodes.
May I add, only use the Report feature during this time if there are personal attacks or obvious vulgar offensive comments.
There is no need to report every comment you think is in the wrong thread, off topic, trolling, etc.... we are doing the best we can to delete those. Also, a very friendly reminder that everyone of us on staff here have actual jobs and we can't possibly keep up with everything, so please y'all use some common sense and good judgment. Thanks
Natbright77
Member
I normally just observe and soak in the knowledge here but I have a question - I read that temps in the Midwest are around 3 degrees colder than what nam/gfs shows. Is this true/important? Thanks for your input.
just look how at the difference in the warm nose for rdu in one run.
nam hr 47 00z
nam hr 41 06z.
iGRXY
Member
Cold air appears to be coming in a little quicker at 18 on the NAM. The High is also 1048. Lets see if the warm nose is going to get pushed back some.
SnowNiner
Member
I think tv mets in general put alot of faith in them. If they keep going up, watch the call maps go further up today. GSP will probably up their forecast as well. In fact I wouldn't be surprised that just because of that a WWA will go up for Charlotte around lunch time.
Warm nose is going to be in southern Va
I will say, I would like to see that HP further east so the mountains would have less affect on CAA.... delayed cold air arrival is always a concern too.
SE VA will love this one