I’m not a fan at how the RAP ended with its P-type maps, but then again, looking at soundings, this is mostly snow. I have a hard time trusting models that are saying that precip over NC is rain.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
that's WAA on steroids.. or at least some video sign stealing...
John1122
Member
I'm right under the heavy dollop of snow in Northern East Tennessee on there. I'd send some cold in exchange for guaranteed moisture at this point. Realistically I'm hoping for an inch. Expecting less.
John1122
Member
As for the precip soundings, not sure why but a few weeks ago it kept showing rain here in the models but the soundings were supportive of snow at 850/925. Best guess precip type was snow as well on them. When the precip arrived it was 36 degree rain. 34 degree rain at 925mb near my house.
Stormsfury
Member
Interesting that both the NAM AND GFS significantly drop DPs by 06z Thursday morning before the onset of the final round in the Carolinas. Particularly within 50 miles on either side of the Carolinas borders...
John1122
Member
00z UKIE isn't beautiful but it's way better than 12z which basically had zilch outside the mountains.
While it sniffed out other events ok, it can actually be to warm sometimes at the BL
From Greg Fishel...starting to think he may be on to something...:
"Here is my concern for snow lovers. See the map below. It is a forecast of the Isobar(lines of equal pressure)pattern over the US and Canada. The cold area of high pressure is over southern Iowa Thursday night. This position almost always dictates that the cold air will have to cross the Appalachian mountains before it gets here. That air comes up over the mountains and sinks coming down the other side. Sinking motion produces warming, and many times in a setup like this, the temperatures stays above freezing until the precipitation departs, and I fear that could happen this time. The ideal position of that high for snow lovers is over the northeastern U.S., because it provides a direct discharge of arctic air down the east slopes of the mountains with no impedance at all."
My ugly map based off what I’ve seen today on the short range models, for the western areas around WNc, most of the snow comes from the overrunning precip, which may have intense rates (from the large amounts of LLVL WAA and 850mb frontogenesis), as it moves east some WAA gets cranking enough to where may cause mixing with sleet and even all sleet at times, north of that, between I-40 and I-85 looks like a solid spot as there will be a good overlap of moisture, but lack of a warm nose to ruin things, i say 2-5 inches but if that band parks and rips, it could certainly lay down more, anyways as it moves east, a transfer begins, and strong 700mb frontogenesis and WAA gets going, which produces intense rates and good snows around ENC, areas around Wilmington see backend snow, I’d be cautious and lean with the lower numbers rn that you see on here, note this is just a first accum map and it will change, and yes I know, it’s ugly as heck lol 
I know that at this state we aren’t worrying about Globals, but for entertainment purposes, the GEPS looks good.
Almost time to get Dr. No’d.
Looks like it should come north some based on the early portion of its run. Extrapolating model runs is a disaster waiting to happen, though.
Looks like it should come north some based on the early portion of its run. Extrapolating model runs is a disaster waiting to happen, though.
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John1122
Member
Euro further north by a good 100 miles with the precip field in Texas vs 12z.
accu35
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Euro is only out at hour 30, it's not go time yet
John1122
Member
75 miles or so north and more healthy looking through 36. Probably not going to do much for me but maybe downstream it will be better than the last couple of whiffs.
John1122
Member
Now has more moisture in Tennessee vs 12z but ptype issues. Maybe warmer?
John1122
Member
Much better than 12z.
The 00z Euro folds! Massive jump north from the 12z run!
We’re not talking NAM totals with it, mind you, but still it’s a big jump.
We’re not talking NAM totals with it, mind you, but still it’s a big jump.
Euro fell flat on its ass with this setup
John1122
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LovingGulfLows
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It's really sad how much it's fallen from grace. Flopped with the N GA snow event and now it seems with this too.
00z:
12z:
12z:
John1122
Member
I know. I had just posted 00z above and was saying 00z was a huge improvement over that 12z run from today.
LovingGulfLows
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I'll say though....Euro definitely seems to be backing the NAM with the p-type issues.
When it comes to thermals, neither the NAM nor the Euro is going to be the final product. It's going to come down to nowcasting (as always) Our best bet is for some heavy returns to keep overriding the same area's. Tonight's radar is something I wouldn't mind seeing on Thursday. Lot's of back building and expansive coverage.
They are bad, but they will have some time to come down over the next 36 hours or so. It is going to be important we get heavy precip, though, as these soil temps could keep the snow from sticking as quickly as it would otherwise (and there will be melting underneath). I would like to see these come down to at least around 40 before snow starts falling. I know people love to make fun of soil temps as a meaningful factor, but there’s a reason the NWS RAH WFO includes a discussion of soil temps in some of their after action reports.
In some areas, we could be dealing with the unholy trifecta: late February sun angle, warm soil temps, and above freezing BL temps, so it’s important the snow rate is consistent. If the heaviest snow holds off until night, that would help a lot.
Not that it means anything tonight, here’s how accurate the NAM 00z run was 6 hours out. Will be radar watching like a hawk tomorrow. I’ve enjoyed tracking and watching this event take shape. And I hope someone gets absolutely buried by this setup.
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Deleted member 1449
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6Z NAM with widespread snow across northern NC by 10 a.m. Thursday--earlier than before.
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Deleted member 1449
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6Z NAM is also farther north with the snow/sleet line, which is well into Chatham/Randolph/Wake counties at 18-21Z.
John1122
Member
The NAM loves just about everyone in a good bit of Tennessee, North Miss to North Georgia and most of North and South Carolina that run except ESE sections. It may throw down close to 2 feet in Eastern NC.
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Deleted member 1449
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Much more reasonable snow totals with this run of the NAM: 5-7" across the central/northern Piedmont w/ higher totals on the coastal plain.
John1122
Member
You can lose 70 percent of your total in eastern NC and still get a great event. The NAM pops what becomes a stronger low than other modeling and it just strengthens pretty fast. The low pops off the coast at 1017 and is pulling away at 1002 15 hours later. Which is why there is a 19 inch lollipop in a large area of 12+ inches in Eastern NC.
NWS RAH is slowly coming around:
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Not seeing much to get excited about
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Clem282340
Member
Looks like it’s getting colder as the precipitation moving in
Six Mile Wx
Member
Precip looks later