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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

mcd0126.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 202101Z - 210000Z

SUMMARY...Snow, occasionally at heavy rates near or in excess of 1
inch per hour, appears increasingly probable within a corridor
across the North Carolina piedmont into southeast
Virginia/northeastern North Carolina Tidewater region by 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent, downstream of a low-amplitude short
wave trough digging into the lower Ohio Valley, is supporting a
broad shield of precipitation now overspreading a stalled or slowly
moving frontal zone extending across much of the Southeast. With
the continuing east-southeastward progression of the mid-level
impulse, models indicate that a surface frontal wave will gradually
deepen east of the Carolina coast through early evening, while
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis intensifies across the southern
Mid Atlantic Coast region.

Across the North Carolina coastal plain into the Tidewater of
northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virgnia, the latest
Rapid Refresh suggests that lift will become increasingly maximized
in the mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
growth. While forecast soundings suggest that temperature profiles,
particularly near the surface and perhaps within a layer between
850-700 mb, are still marginal for snow reaching the surface across
much of this corridor, modification is ongoing in response to
evaporative cooling and melting of precipitation. This will
continue as precipitation persists and rates intensify.

Aided by the onset of diurnal boundary layer cooling, and perhaps
weak low-level cold advection in the wake of the frontal wave, a
transition to snow appears probable by 23-00Z, if not before, along
a corridor extending from roughly the Raleigh NC metropolitan area
into the Hampton Roads vicinity. It appears that this probably will
include general snow rates in excess of 1/2 inch per hour, with
rates occasionally on the order of 1 inch per hour in one or more
developing narrow heavier bands, which may continue into mid/late
evening.

..Kerr.. 02/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36067971 36477903 36987610 36177612 35457820 35407917
36067971
 
Will temps crashing down a little lower than expected correlate to temps further south expecting to lower a little more quickly or is it just a local thing
 
View attachment 36030
Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 202101Z - 210000Z

SUMMARY...Snow, occasionally at heavy rates near or in excess of 1
inch per hour, appears increasingly probable within a corridor
across the North Carolina piedmont into southeast
Virginia/northeastern North Carolina Tidewater region by 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent, downstream of a low-amplitude short
wave trough digging into the lower Ohio Valley, is supporting a
broad shield of precipitation now overspreading a stalled or slowly
moving frontal zone extending across much of the Southeast. With
the continuing east-southeastward progression of the mid-level
impulse, models indicate that a surface frontal wave will gradually
deepen east of the Carolina coast through early evening, while
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis intensifies across the southern
Mid Atlantic Coast region.

Across the North Carolina coastal plain into the Tidewater of
northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virgnia, the latest
Rapid Refresh suggests that lift will become increasingly maximized
in the mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
growth. While forecast soundings suggest that temperature profiles,
particularly near the surface and perhaps within a layer between
850-700 mb, are still marginal for snow reaching the surface across
much of this corridor, modification is ongoing in response to
evaporative cooling and melting of precipitation. This will
continue as precipitation persists and rates intensify.

Aided by the onset of diurnal boundary layer cooling, and perhaps
weak low-level cold advection in the wake of the frontal wave, a
transition to snow appears probable by 23-00Z, if not before, along
a corridor extending from roughly the Raleigh NC metropolitan area
into the Hampton Roads vicinity. It appears that this probably will
include general snow rates in excess of 1/2 inch per hour, with
rates occasionally on the order of 1 inch per hour in one or more
developing narrow heavier bands, which may continue into mid/late
evening.

..Kerr.. 02/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36067971 36477903 36987610 36177612 35457820 35407917
36067971
Can't remember the last winter MD I was under. Still coming down good here.
 
106.1 said the snow will exit around 6PM, so we have a few more hours to get some accumulations. Dusting now, maybe we get to 1.5, 2 at the top.
 
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