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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

I’m not a fan at how the RAP ended with its P-type maps, but then again, looking at soundings, this is mostly snow. I have a hard time trusting models that are saying that precip over NC is rain.
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Ollie Williams said:
I’m not a fan at how the RAP ended with its P-type maps, but then again, looking at soundings, this is mostly snow. I have a hard time trusting models that are saying that precip over NC is rain.
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I'm right under the heavy dollop of snow in Northern East Tennessee on there. I'd send some cold in exchange for guaranteed moisture at this point. Realistically I'm hoping for an inch. Expecting less.
 
As for the precip soundings, not sure why but a few weeks ago it kept showing rain here in the models but the soundings were supportive of snow at 850/925. Best guess precip type was snow as well on them. When the precip arrived it was 36 degree rain. 34 degree rain at 925mb near my house.
 
Interesting that both the NAM AND GFS significantly drop DPs by 06z Thursday morning before the onset of the final round in the Carolinas. Particularly within 50 miles on either side of the Carolinas borders...
 
Ollie Williams said:
I’m not a fan at how the RAP ended with its P-type maps, but then again, looking at soundings, this is mostly snow. I have a hard time trusting models that are saying that precip over NC is rain.
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From Greg Fishel...starting to think he may be on to something...:

"Here is my concern for snow lovers. See the map below. It is a forecast of the Isobar(lines of equal pressure)pattern over the US and Canada. The cold area of high pressure is over southern Iowa Thursday night. This position almost always dictates that the cold air will have to cross the Appalachian mountains before it gets here. That air comes up over the mountains and sinks coming down the other side. Sinking motion produces warming, and many times in a setup like this, the temperatures stays above freezing until the precipitation departs, and I fear that could happen this time. The ideal position of that high for snow lovers is over the northeastern U.S., because it provides a direct discharge of arctic air down the east slopes of the mountains with no impedance at all."
 
My ugly map based off what I’ve seen today on the short range models, for the western areas around WNc, most of the snow comes from the overrunning precip, which may have intense rates (from the large amounts of LLVL WAA and 850mb frontogenesis), as it moves east some WAA gets cranking enough to where may cause mixing with sleet and even all sleet at times, north of that, between I-40 and I-85 looks like a solid spot as there will be a good overlap of moisture, but lack of a warm nose to ruin things, i say 2-5 inches but if that band parks and rips, it could certainly lay down more, anyways as it moves east, a transfer begins, and strong 700mb frontogenesis and WAA gets going, which produces intense rates and good snows around ENC, areas around Wilmington see backend snow, I’d be cautious and lean with the lower numbers rn that you see on here, note this is just a first accum map and it will change, and yes I know, it’s ugly as heck lol B534F211-4120-4C18-90E8-E51E22F6F176.png
 
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Not sure if this been posted but a closer view. Hopefully my bizznest trip to Huntsville will pay off. "Work related " lol
 
Almost time to get Dr. No’d.

Looks like it should come north some based on the early portion of its run. Extrapolating model runs is a disaster waiting to happen, though.
 
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