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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

My current thoughts on this event:

I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.

I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors

February 20-21 NC Forecast Snowmap 1.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
My current thoughts on this event:

I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.

I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors

View attachment 35483
Click to expand...
Anyway you could do a S.C. one as well?
 
Webberweather53 said:
My current thoughts on this event:

I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.

I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors

View attachment 35483
Click to expand...
do TN now.. :)
 
GFS strikes the middle ground and closer to reality, still looks like a 1pm start for PGV and a predominant SN event based on soundings. Inside 36hr uptick in rates will take the last 1K' isothermal so not currently worried by 36-37 at surface . Tomorrow it will be all about the short term meso guidance, this will be the last set of global guidance weighted IMO.
 
Latest HREF valid 4pm Thursday afternoon
781a7705dea661a9429d5a1f94acb14c.jpg


Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
My current thoughts on this event:

I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.

I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors

View attachment 35483
Click to expand...
That map reminds me of the snow footprint the dec 2018 storm left behind, dang
 
Not sure how applicable it is to this event, but it's been a trend on models in the short range here in my area of Tennessee with near non stop rain events.

The 00z Monday global runs had my 24 hour precip ending at 1am tonight with the following, .25 Euro, .30 GFS, .6 Canadian. Meso models .25 NAM and .35 RGEM.

I just emptied my rain gauge for today. Actual total was .57. Models have been under performing in the short range all year. Especially the NW side. Oddly the Canadian was the closest model for me with today's system from 24-48 hours out from start to finish time.
 
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