Yeah, I remember two waves of wintry precip in that one.. Sorry, was just curious about compare/contrast..
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
I think we are pretty much out on this one. I would not be surprised however if a decent amount of the metro sees flakes on the backside.
GFS
Stormsfury
Member
Not a problem. I compared some past SC events earlier with reanalysis maps from some prior notable storms and couldn't find too much of a similar match.
While I'm typing, I noticed something strange with the 850mb low on both the NAM12 AND NAM3... The semblance of an 850mb low seems to take shape around NE GA but actually propagates ESE thru and off Charleston by late THU/early FRI AM.
I have been noticing with this 00z suite that models are trending more positive with the trough supplying the cold air. That’s not a good thing.
Cold chasing moisture for this run in CHA, looks like, to my uneducated eye.
Jessy89
Member
That warm nose will be something to pay attention to on future runs tomorrow
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Snownut
Member
In the upstate I could see this starting as a mix, then ascthermals crash down it turns to all snow
iGrey_X
Member
Gfs says rain on the maps but the soundings are snow.
Jessy89
Member
My fear is it ends as light rain/sleet with warm nose coming up out of Georgia.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Maybe 2/11/14? Others have compared to that in here (like @Myfrotho704_ ). The overrunning thump turned out to be more than modeled. I was up close to your way that year and was expecting more on the next day, but by about the early afternoon, there was 4" of snow on the ground and it was misting (as it had wrapped up).
Anyway, not to have this totally off topic, I hope for everyone's sake that this warmer trend stops.
Be careful. NAM and now GFS showing major warm nose into the upstate. Which is usually the case more times than not. Still time to fix that but be very wary
iGrey_X
Member
That’s likely what will happen. Rain to mix to snow all in about an hour or 2
iGrey_X
Member
Gfs soundings are snow soundings in the upstate. The surface says rain but the soundings are snow.
Snownut
Member
Not before 2-3" of snow
NCSNOW
Member
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In a good spot here N Randolph County. 2-6 county wide looks like a solid bet. Thats being conservative. I can envision perfect set up and far eastern , esp SE corner part of county making a run at a 6-10 lollipop. Solid thermals and very encouraging qpf trends up to .5+
See if we can hold the fort at 6z and 12z on the cam models qpf and thermal wise. But I like where things sit at the moment
See if we can hold the fort at 6z and 12z on the cam models qpf and thermal wise. But I like where things sit at the moment
That looks about right! I'm in that white hole of NOTHING....................... lol
ATLwxfan
Member
Not sure what to make of the accumulation maps on 12k and 3k NAM
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I like PW's map better lol
