• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Poimen said:
A definite improvement with the RGEM tonight too, though not nearly as robust as the NAM. But the main take away seems to be that the models are beginning to catch on to the overruning threat in addition to the coastal action.
Click to expand...
Too bad it's mighty warm..... yikes.
 
SimeonNC said:
What about the southern piedmont and sandhills (CLT-FAY), mixing is obviously going to be more of an issue but what are your opinions for those areas?
Click to expand...

My general opinion is that a few inches of snow & sleet is probable in areas like Charlotte & Fayetteville, something in the ballpark of roughly 2-4" ish is a good call in these areas given the potential for mixing. Charlotte might fare a bit better than Fayetteville imo
 
Latest from Greg Fishel. He says the problem with the Euro is not enough cold air. But I thought folks on here were saying the problem with the Euro is a lack of precip. He seems to be going strictly with the Euro, too.

OK HERE'S THE LATEST

Many have asked over the years-why is the European model on average superior to the U.S. Model? When I was in Paris a few years ago, I got to interview the former head of the European Center, and he told me the following. First, their data assimilation process is superior to ours, meaning they incorporate actual observations into the model better than we do. Second, in the U.S., the meteorological community is involved in several different types of modeling efforts. We have mesoscale(high resolution) models, we have global models, we have hurricane models, etc. In other words our computers are being taxed by many different projects, limiting the available resources for any one effort. The European center focuses on one thing and one thing only, and that is to produce the best darn medium range global model on earth, and they have done just that. Lastly, the European Union brings together the best of the best scientists from every member of the union, so there is a lot of collaboration going on, and that always helps to produce a better product.

The latest US high resolution model still produces a major snowstorm across much of central and eastern NC midday Thursday into Thursday night. The American global model is not yet out tonight, but the afternoon run produced significant amounts of snow as well while the American ensembles did not. The European and its ensembles had barely any snow for us, although the afternoon run did show a slight increase over the morning run.

Here is my concern for snow lovers. See the map below. It is a forecast of the Isobar(lines of equal pressure)pattern over the US and Canada. The cold area of high pressure is over southern Iowa Thursday night. This position almost always dictates that the cold air will have to cross the Appalachian mountains before it gets here. That air comes up over the mountains and sinks coming down the other side. Sinking motion produces warming, and many times in a setup like this, the temperatures stays above freezing until the precipitation departs, and I fear that could happen this time. The ideal position of that high for snow lovers is over the northeastern U.S., because it provides a direct discharge of arctic air down the east slopes of the mountains with no impedance at all.

I'll probably stay up late to see the new global models come in and will post for anyone still awake. I'm sticking with my "underwhelmed" status, but I learned a long time ago to never say never. So why start now? By the way I turn 63 tomorrow, and there have been a lot of big snowstorms on or around February 19 in the eastern United States. So snow lovers, you've got that going for you!FB_IMG_1582082654351.jpg
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brick Tamland said:
Latest from Greg Fishel. He says the problem with the Euro is not enough cold air. But I thought folks on here were saying the problem with the Euro is a lack of precip. He seems to be going strictly with the Euro, too.

OK HERE'S THE LATEST

Many have asked over the years-why is the European model on average superior to the U.S. Model? When I was in Paris a few years ago, I got to interview the former head of the European Center, and he told me the following. First, their data assimilation process is superior to ours, meaning they incorporate actual observations into the model better than we do. Second, in the U.S., the meteorological community is involved in several different types of modeling efforts. We have mesoscale(high resolution) models, we have global models, we have hurricane models, etc. In other words our computers are being taxed by many different projects, limiting the available resources for any one effort. The European center focuses on one thing and one thing only, and that is to produce the best darn medium range global model on earth, and they have done just that. Lastly, the European Union brings together the best of the best scientists from every member of the union, so there is a lot of collaboration going on, and that always helps to produce a better product.

The latest US high resolution model still produces a major snowstorm across much of central and eastern NC midday Thursday into Thursday night. The American global model is not yet out tonight, but the afternoon run produced significant amounts of snow as well while the American ensembles did not. The European and its ensembles had barely any snow for us, although the afternoon run did show a slight increase over the morning run.

Here is my concern for snow lovers. See the map below. It is a forecast of the Isobar(lines of equal pressure)pattern over the US and Canada. The cold area of high pressure is over southern Iowa Thursday night. This position almost always dictates that the cold air will have to cross the Appalachian mountains before it gets here. That air comes up over the mountains and sinks coming down the other side. Sinking motion produces warming, and many times in a setup like this, the temperatures stays above freezing until the precipitation departs, and I fear that could happen this time. The ideal position of that high for snow lovers is over the northeastern U.S., because it provides a direct discharge of arctic air down the east slopes of the mountains with no impedance at all.

I'll probably stay up late to see the new global models come in and will post for anyone still awake. I'm sticking with my "underwhelmed" status, but I learned a long time ago to never say never. So why start now? By the way I turn 63 tomorrow, and there have been a lot of big snowstorms on or around February 19 in the eastern United States. So snow lovers, you've got that going for you!
Click to expand...
post the image he's talking about
 
I'd challenge p-type changeover on alot of these graphics absent partial thickness overlay and preferably sounding. For example, the 0z RGEM, output indicates RN but sounding shows best guess snow with solid snow the next step when course output is RN.

RGEM42.PNG
rgem42s.PNGRGEM45.PNG
regem45s.PNG
 
With deep, strong moist SW flow at 700mb/strong WAA/strong 850-700mb Frontogenesis/lots of omega in the DGZ, this argues for Very big rates (1-2 inches per hour) even with the overrunning precip that moves in for areas west, but those rates looks better into ENC as the coastal gets going, Honestly thankful to get this event whether it sleets or snows
 
Yeah right now no one should be looking at global models with any stock in them .. their job is done with .. it is now up to the mesoscale models to do what the mesoscale models were MEANT to do which is forecast in the short range ... looks to me those models are sticking to their guns so see no reason to be freaked out by the little ole warm biased poor preforming ICON
 
Webberweather53 said:
My general opinion is that a few inches of snow & sleet is probable in areas like Charlotte & Fayetteville, something in the ballpark of roughly 2-4" ish is a good call in these areas given the potential for mixing. Charlotte might fare a bit better than Fayetteville imo
Click to expand...

I will say though especially for Charlotte, there's a tiny, outside chance we actually end up busting high on snow if we get underneath a quasi-stationary laterally propagating frontogenetically forced snow band that keeps the rates very high and also barring that the warm advection isn't quite as strong as the NAM forecasts. 8 or 9 times out of 10 this won't happen, but occasionally frontogenesis wins (for a little while) in setups like this where both WAA and frontogenesis predominantly forces most of the precipitation. Think February 12-13 2014 in Charlotte & December 8-10 2018 in the Triangle as a few good recent cases where snow busts high due to a very strong, somewhat unforeseen front end thump.

December 8-10 2018 NC Snowmap.png

February 12-13 2014 NC Snowmap.gif
 
I was thinking this storm reminds me a little of Feb 2014, not for any concrete reasons, just hunch.
 
Storm5 said:
Ok I’m joining the NAM humping parade . It’s burned me more times than I can count but I guess it’s ride or die time for extreme northern Alabama
9ed6786e65cc8504208f569c87edb719.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Good grief - 5” in that tongue coming into Lawrenceville. This is getting interesting for metro ATL.
 
SETNwx said:
I was thinking this storm reminds me a little of Feb 2014, not for any concrete reasons, just hunch.
Click to expand...

Similarities end in regard to this one vs 2014. In 2014, cold air was already established and had a double high... One in the NE and another in the MW. The 2014 event ended up being a significant ice storm down here with as much as 0.75" ice accretion on elevated surfaces.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top