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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Gaining/Losing totals models are just finding there final place
 
When it comes to thermals, neither the NAM nor the Euro is going to be the final product. It's going to come down to nowcasting (as always) Our best bet is for some heavy returns to keep overriding the same area's. Tonight's radar is something I wouldn't mind seeing on Thursday. Lot's of back building and expansive coverage.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I'm not a fan of these soil temps.
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They are bad, but they will have some time to come down over the next 36 hours or so. It is going to be important we get heavy precip, though, as these soil temps could keep the snow from sticking as quickly as it would otherwise (and there will be melting underneath). I would like to see these come down to at least around 40 before snow starts falling. I know people love to make fun of soil temps as a meaningful factor, but there’s a reason the NWS RAH WFO includes a discussion of soil temps in some of their after action reports.

In some areas, we could be dealing with the unholy trifecta: late February sun angle, warm soil temps, and above freezing BL temps, so it’s important the snow rate is consistent. If the heaviest snow holds off until night, that would help a lot.
 
ryan1234 said:
When it comes to thermals, neither the NAM nor the Euro is going to be the final product. It's going to come down to nowcasting (as always) Our best bet is for some heavy returns to keep overriding the same area's. Tonight's radar is something I wouldn't mind seeing on Thursday. Lot's of back building and expansive coverage.
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Not that it means anything tonight, here’s how accurate the NAM 00z run was 6 hours out. Will be radar watching like a hawk tomorrow. I’ve enjoyed tracking and watching this event take shape. And I hope someone gets absolutely buried by this setup.
 

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6Z NAM is also farther north with the snow/sleet line, which is well into Chatham/Randolph/Wake counties at 18-21Z.
 
Much more reasonable snow totals with this run of the NAM: 5-7" across the central/northern Piedmont w/ higher totals on the coastal plain.
 
You can lose 70 percent of your total in eastern NC and still get a great event. The NAM pops what becomes a stronger low than other modeling and it just strengthens pretty fast. The low pops off the coast at 1017 and is pulling away at 1002 15 hours later. Which is why there is a 19 inch lollipop in a large area of 12+ inches in Eastern NC.
 
NWS RAH is slowly coming around:


Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
 
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