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Pattern February 11-13 2025

LukeBarrette said:
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Be like other modeling challenge impossible!
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NWS may as well just put everyone Along N of 40 under a WWA and be done with it. Wont happen but verbatim , 1” Snow / .5” Sleet would be a Knarly commute Tuesday PM. Even if it does shift another 35 miles or so I’m 500% certain not a soul in Charlotte news will mention it. “ ohhh setup this, sounding that” “45 and Rain” then it will start and they’ll back pedal.


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BIG FROSTY said:
I would put money on the NAM vs HRRR right now big time!
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The NAM probably is too far north, though. I think Blacksburg, etc. will get a good hit from this whereas the NAM has them too far south. The HRRR is also probably off its rocker, although I haven’t looked at soundings from it so it wouldn’t surprise me if some of that snow it’s showing isn’t really snow.
 
superjames1992 said:
The NAM probably is too far north, though. I think Blacksburg, etc. will get a good hit from this whereas the NAM has them too far south. The HRRR is also probably off its rocker, although I haven’t looked at soundings from it so it wouldn’t surprise me if some of that snow it’s showing isn’t really snow.
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HRRR loves to do that when it shows snow but it’s really a mixed bag
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
NWS may as well just put everyone Along N of 40 under a WWA and be done with it. Wont happen but verbatim , 1” Snow / .5” Sleet would be a Knarly commute Tuesday PM. Even if it does shift another 35 miles or so I’m 500% certain not a soul in Charlotte news will mention it. “ ohhh setup this, sounding that” “45 and Rain” then it will start and they’ll back pedal.


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No way that would happen. Soil and ground temperatures are around 58 this afternoon in your area. Check the Econet stations. You are in good shape.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Hey there it is … first mention of Soil Temps this Season lmao


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LOL, definitely a legit mention here, though. All the recent warm weather is going to make any potential accumulations tougher than they’d be otherwise, and it will take more to make the roadways hazardous especially. Not that it can’t happen, but it will make it harder. I’m not sure an inch of snow would really cause issues.
 
Nobody is expecting major impacts in NC but as noted by NWS in their HWO, some slick spots not completely out of the question. Pretty sure everyone knows by now sun melts ice and warm ground temps limit accums. Can we agree with that 🙄

From Rah NWS:
A few slippery spots are possible on roads, bridges and other surfaces but they are expected to be isolated.
 
superjames1992 said:
LOL, definitely a legit mention here, though. All the recent warm weather is going to make any potential accumulations tougher than they’d be otherwise, and it will take more to make the roadways hazardous especially. Not that it can’t happen, but it will make it harder. I’m not sure an inch of snow would really cause issues.
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Look I personally watched 2.5” pile up in 2 hours on 4/2/2019 during the day. This was with an early April sun angle and following a couple weeks of temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Yes soil temperatures do mean something but heavy rates do overcome that.
 
RBR71 said:
Nobody is expecting major impacts in NC but as noted by NWS in their HWO, some slick spots not completely out of the question. Pretty sure everyone knows by now sun melts ice and warm ground temps limit accums. Can we agree with that 🙄

From Rah NWS:
A few slippery spots are possible on roads, bridges and other surfaces but they are expected to be isolated.
Click to expand...
Reel it in, met. This board needs some hope
 
Chazwin said:
Look I personally watched 2.5” pile up in 2 hours on 4/2/2019 during the day. This was with an early April sun angle and following a couple weeks of temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Yes soil temperatures do mean something but heavy rates do overcome that.
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Yes, you can have frost on the grass at night with high soil temps. You can have snow on the grass after a few minutes of heavy rates. However, roads and bare ground is a different story. These areas will be the last to cave.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Yea they are running 32 to 37 across all he highest mountain peaks, mid to upper 40s in the lower mountains and upper 50s across the western piedmont.
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No ik I was agreeing with you, I was just saying that bc the other day I said that’s one of my fav things about wx forums in Feb … makes it feel like home again. It’s most def true


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