There's still a little time to trend a stronger CAD to feed the colder/dryer air up in Pennsylvania. More wishful thinking right now, but the colder air is not that far away and we're already close with the surface temps.
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Pattern February 11-13 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah I see what kylo is saying, if we had a shot at trending to legit freezing rain event then there would more a more sharper cold feed with say 20s just to our north that could get pulled down and trend down into NC, but it lacks somewhat in this setup, low 30s extend all the way into mid/northern VA so there’s not much wiggle room, best case is fringe areas trend around 32/31 but there’s not much to drag down any legit cold air, and the CAA associated with the CAD happens as precipitation moves in which isn’t ideal
I guess HP pressure could trend stronger and we wring every bit of cold out of it. That's possible.
It's dangerous. These single digits dews just north of the mason Dixon are asking to get pushed south 
It is looking Iike a mess for the I 81 corridor Wytheville to Roanoke. Front end thump of snow, then freezing rain. Then plain rain in the following days ewwww.
SnowNiner
Member
NCSNOW
Member
18z GFS is .70 + freezing rain from northern Randolph County north And west up into sw va. Plenty snow state line an north
lexxnchloe
Member
It did trend south
Bro 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
JHS
Member
This thing may very well end up being a lot like the Feb 17-19, 1989 ice and snowstorm. That one buried much of VA with snow while western and northern NC and northwest SC got ice. It's not there yet, but it is not too far away.
Yeah lots of 32s/33s now compared to 33-34s. It’s close that’s for sure 
Icon went south. Noticeable changes with confluence.
lexxnchloe
Member
Enough for northern NC?
NCSNOW
Member
Check out hour 84 RDPS. I cant post from phone. You in a county on state line, SW VA, you starting to lick chops for snow. Another tick,ill be getting ancy with frzng rain. 32 degrees dont stir the stomach. But another bump down, will be eyebrow raiser.
This little system is really tricky
NCSNOW
Member
That 1032 HP is popping up on VA/MD state line early Tuesday on some of latest guidance. If moisture gets in here 6 hours earlier,gonna lock in a stronger,colder wedge.
Slides up into PA latter in day
Edit. Think It was 0z nam I just noticed. Hour 84,but nam is a nudge latter with moisture
Slides up into PA latter in day
Edit. Think It was 0z nam I just noticed. Hour 84,but nam is a nudge latter with moisture
NCSNOW
Member
Snowing NC 40 north Mon on GFS. 1055 HP coming down western plains
White rain
Soundings say this map is BS but it's funny
If you could get those blues aka height field suppression south of Chicago and into Ohio, NC is cooking. Thats how close this setup is. Also note the NE US 
Literally a few more ticks this way and I-40 is cooking 
It's actually trying hard to get there. GFS was a touch colder this run, it really is so close it is almost infuriating. Like when your team comes back from 20 down to lose on a last second shot
NCSNOW
Member
Half a foot warren / halifax county 0z gfs clown. There you go Met
I hate this hobby
NCSNOW
Member
The sun storm exiting NE, may be whats helping confluence better
NCSNOW
Member
You stealing DC snow, one more tick, we win and they will get scraps
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Why does it seem like it’s only trending SE? Like Triangle getting involved and Roxboro but Statesville / Hickory and areas 50ish miles from border not really changing?
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CMC south as well, not enough yet but much better than 12z.
Eh this is really close now. One more colder trend and that’s ZR for much of 85/ north CLT metro
NCSNOW
Member
Backdoor front, timing. Look at kylo images of HP, press. Comes down clockwise
FWIW, the GEFS has dropped the 2" mean into northern NC