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Pattern February 11-13 2025

superjames1992 said:
The 00z GGEM also shifted south a good amount, though it’s not as far south as the GFS. The GFS is probably out to lunch, but it certainly piques the interest.
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GFS Looks pretty 12Z ICON (ish) with the footprint. Curious to see if a higher number of members show a southern slide then I’d be interested. I think there was like 5 members on 12Z GEFS didn’t check 18Z. Also, not expecting much …. But we’re literally 70 miles from being in the southern extreme of that zone that’s not some world beating task for 5days … wishcasting sure but still.


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Another one hundred miles south and Central North Carolina is back in business. It might not be the kind of business that many of us want though. Over an inch of freezing rain for us would be an ice storm for the ages. If the Euro starts to align with the latest GFS in its southward trend it might be time to start making some preparations to be without power for a while. Valentine's Day might have a romantic candlelight dinner in store for us for more reasons than romance.
 
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weather bubba said:
Another one hundred miles south and Central North Carolina is back in business. It might not be the kind of business that many of us want though. Over an inch of freezing rain for us would be an ice storm for the ages. If the Euro starts to align with the latest GFS in its southward trend it might be time to start making some preparations to be without power for a while. Valentine's Day might have a romantic candlelight dinner in store for us for more reasons than romance.
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Oh snap that last sentence was golden humor!!!!
 
Blacksburg has no mention of any freezing or frozen precip in my forecast, So they're not buying any southward shift.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

TUESDAY
Rain. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Rain. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Rain likely. Not as cool with highs around 50. Chance of rain 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
Rain. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Now ain't that just a beautiful forecast!
 
The euro throws in a front end thump at least here in VA. That’s progress. Not buying the GFS we know how crappy this model is.
 
We say
LukeBarrette said:
The euro throws in a front end thump at least here in VA. That’s progress. Not buying the GFS we know how crappy this model is.
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We say that....but technically it was first on the N shift. Adn for the slider i believe it was first to show the dumb extreme south track
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
I still think CAD areas can work with this....33 4.5 days out isnt terrible. Plenty of time for a 2 degree 2m change to get a solid ice event
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Even if the 33 degrees verified there would be areas in climatologically favored areas like rises in elevation and rural areas where temperatures could approach 32F or below. That would be enough to provide spotty ice accumulations for people in those areas.
 
12z ICON looks similar to the 06z run except hammered SW VA even more than last run. NC/VA border still largely the dividing line, similar to the GFS.

I think this has the potential to be big storm for Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc. although it’ll also all get washed away by rain soon after. Although honestly I think sometimes we’re better off with rain than full sunshine for keeping snowcover.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
4 days out, I’m interested to see how much colder the models will trend…probably not much to make a big difference. NC still has skin in the game I believe


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12Z Nam is the coldest furtherest south with those temps up above us out to 84. That's one to watch to see if you can lasso a trend over the weekend. It will sniff the CAD the best. Like stated earlier whatever happens, its going to cold rain eventually and a lot of it. Where were these waves of multi day overrunning when the boundary was draped across GOM in January. UGH! Maybe BF and the VA boys can get lucky enough to get hammered, post us some pics.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Just wait for the frzn outputs if it trends to 30 for Two days ....that will be in the epic model image feed
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Problem the cold isn't deep...it's 32F in northern VA and 33 in Greensboro. If it was mid 20's in northern VA we probably could have a real problem on our hands.

For Raleigh, we haven't had an impactful ice storm since Dec 2002. We've had light glazing events time to time. But maybe points further west than Raleigh could be impacted.
gfs-deterministic-east-t2m_f-9361600.png
 
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