Tsappfrog20
Member
Still probably too far north to get central North Carolina in the game, but one can hope
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Pattern February 11-13 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Still probably too far north to get central North Carolina in the game, but one can hope
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astroworld123
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Not sure how many more ticks we can get out of this -NAO block/shrinking of the ridge over the SE, would like to see this continue. 12 GEFS did follow the OP this run
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Bigedd09
Member
Canadian mighty strong with the RIDGE
I'm not gonna let the ICON or south trends on the GFS/GEFS suck me back in. I'd all but give up on this and that's still where I'm at with it
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, this one died when EPS lost it a couple days ago. I’m a weenie so it’s not like I’m going to not watch it, but yeah this I still think is a dc and north storm based on the ridge.
Only if we could do this until verification right ? 
I assume the 850s are even cruddier?
We will follow Boston’s lead!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
no, you can see them trending back in CAD areas on Fro Map
I highly doubt we trend back to snow but I still would watch out for ZR around I-40/the foothills and escarpment. Certainly could go back that direction
SnowNiner
Member
Wait, so if 925s get to below freezing around clt this run, I would guess the surface is colder. Does Euro show an ice storm in the piedmont now?
Agreed. Historically, it’s not be uncommon for those areas to get ice when the Mid-Atlantic gets their big snowstorms. Not so enthusiastic out this way, but will continue watching. I don’t think it’s out of the question it could trend better for us, but it’s certainly a lesser possibility.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
From what I saw on MA Forum the GEFS looks better (NC/VA) Folks
Verbatim, on the Euro 2m temps are in the mid to upper 30s in those areas. Historically, I want to say the Euro tends to be too warm at the surface in CAD situations, though (this has certainly been the case in past storms, like the March 2014 ice storm in the Triad when it was awful, but I’m not sure if it’s true these days or not). I’d certainly expect colder with those 925 temps.
I know how folks feel about this model after it’s rug pull, but it’s in a better timeframe and is following current trends on other OPs/ENS, but the AI does have a stronger wedge this run with a ice event for the NW Piedmont/parts of the triad/foothills and escarpment
Tsappfrog20
Member
I am up here in Southwest VA and time and time again none of the models accurately predict temperature profiles at the surface in wedge type events. It actually gets underplayed time and again until about 24 to 36 hours out then the short range picks up on the cad.
Trying not to get sucked in but these trends back south again are pretty stark attm
Looking at the free maps for the 12z AI Euro, definitely an improvement and flatter, but still all-rain for most of us. The AI Euro has multiple very cold rains for central NC during the run, which is fun.
Definitely the kind of improvement where if it kept on ticking like that for another day, it would have big ramifications, but that probably won’t happen.
Definitely the kind of improvement where if it kept on ticking like that for another day, it would have big ramifications, but that probably won’t happen.
We always trend to these close calls but seemingly stay stuck at 33 and above outside climo favored areas. Maybe we can do something different for once. But trend is your friend on this particular model for wintry 
AI has 3 different ice storms for the foothills lol from 3 different events
I knew Avery county wouldn’t get skipped. This is their bread and butter pattern
WolfpackHomer91
Member
From my understanding is he calculates the upper level and surface temperatures to detect ice sleet snow. It's what the AIFS should already offer, but yet again, this "amazing model from the future" has maps from 1983.
So the Ptype maps he make are okay but they will probably be a bit coarse on the Ptype transition areas. Use at own risk for forecasts Ptype zones in other words.
rburrel2
Member
This wedge keeps trending stronger and stronger. Seems like Central NC is squarely in the game now for a pretty solid sleet storm, maybe even a front end thump of snow to start.
18z ICON backs off a little from the wild solution it had at 12z, a tick further north. Not a huge shift either way, though.
18z GFS ticked a little further north compared to 12z by my eye, as well. But pretty similar.
18z GFS ticked a little further north compared to 12z by my eye, as well. But pretty similar.
rburrel2
Member
This is stupid.
It is an insane amount of waves in just a few days. Dare I say there’s more chances for model error in such a situation? (For better or for worse)?
rburrel2
Member
Number 6 on the way for DC at the end of the run....
rburrel2
Member
I mean geez.... is it too much to ask for one of 6 storms to trend a little south?
rburrel2
Member
I guess all you can take from this is there's a very good chance we will have one heck of a glacier to our north for the potential Feb 21-28th period.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
4 FEET in NE PA…. Yea, eat a bag. What did they ever do to deserve the literal best 4 weeks in what ? 40 yrs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
You think that this could work for at least a thump in Blacksburg-Roanoke? I’m unsure at this point.
Ice storm I would think. All the way down the I 81 corridor to about Abingdon.
GFS has ZR down into the triad 
I bet you this is the last jump south, because it’s headed the right direction. Knowing our luck 
